HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: Ensembles from today's 12z GEFS. Ensembles are definitely north of the OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Ensembles from today's 12z GEFS. Selfishly for mby let’s go #18. Realistically though I’d be feeling really good if I were in northern Ohio. Looks like a really nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Stop looking at just the surface. . Eh certainly looked that way at 850 too. At 500 I see it was a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Parameters would support 1-2" per hour type rates in the heart of the band once it gets cranking, so storm total amounts could be high end if it stalls anywhere for a prolonged period. I don’t recall seeing any LE headlines in Cook for a couple years. Wonder if this weekend changes that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Lining up nice for SE MI. They know how this works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don’t recall seeing any LE headlines in Cook for a couple years. Wonder if this weekend changes that. March 2017 I believe. But that was a straight LE event unlike this one which will be synoptic transferring to lake event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don’t recall seeing any LE headlines in Cook for a couple years. Wonder if this weekend changes that. I'm not sure how they'll handle it, since there's a storm too. In any event, while it's still a bit early to get into amounts, I like the possibility of double digit storm totals in northeast IL, especially closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don’t recall seeing any LE headlines in Cook for a couple years. Wonder if this weekend changes that. It has been a while, but I'd say it's unlikely given synoptic snows will be heavily involved. This is the last winter LE headlines are in play too, with winter headline simplification coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, michaelmantis said: Sure this is a question with a lot of unknowns given the models, but for N IL does this look to be more of a matter of timing (i.e. starting later) or amounts? I get both are related, just trying to figure out how bad Saturday morning could potentially be in NE IL. Have to make a decision if I'm going to stay overnight or try to drive home in what seems to be like the middle of the storm Saturday morning. Appreciate any crystal ball reads given the latest models! Long time no see...Still down the road in Elgin I see as well. I think either way right now, start time should be Friday evening/early Friday night as the FGEN snows move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z ECMWF will likely bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z ECMWF will likely bump north. It started that way, then actually ended up further south. In the end, the southern stream trough ended up further south and is more positive tilt. The northern stream too a big jump east too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: It started that way, then actually ended up further south. In the end, the southern stream trough ended up further south and is more positive tilt. The northern stream too a jump east too. Will be interesting to see the EPS, everything else was north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Noticeable in the last 1-2 days is the trend toward a weaker surface high, with weaker/less sharp confluence. Remember when it was advertised around 1045-1050 mb? Not anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It started that way, then actually ended up further south. PV orientation slightly further east allows the ridge out west to push our vortmax along...and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Pretty short duration event on the Euro for the DVN cwa. Looks like a meager 2-4" type event vs 3-6" on most other 12z guidance. All and all pretty meh, but a nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Definitely positive trends since last nights 00z debacle. I would say if this continues to trend through today across all runs then I would have to discount the 00z runs as an aberration. We have seen this song and dance before, a massive shift in the 84-108 time period only to immediately start correcting back 6 hours later. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Stebo said: Definitely positive trends since last nights 00z debacle. I would say if this continues to trend through today across all runs then I would have to discount the 00z runs as an aberration. We have seen this song and dance before, a massive shift in the 84-108 time period only to immediately start correcting back 6 hours later. This. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ensembles looking positive for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: When you look at the 12z GFS today and yesterdays 18z GFS, you can see the difference. The vort isn't as robust and the phasing is slower, creating a disorganized northern stream "look". With a single vort phase, you need the move from positive-neutral-negative tilt to happen robustly. This is where the Vort being over no mans land is a problem. That's not the issue at all. This loop shows what the changes have been... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That's not the issue at all. This loop shows what the changes have been... I think combo of the ridge out west + PV orientation. Seems to be the theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think combo of the ridge out west + PV orientation. Seems to be the themeThere are many things, and most are positive.-The heights with the ridge out in the West have trended lower, with additional waves moving in and topping the ridge sooner. -The southern trough is becoming more compact and neutral tilt, with a crisp trough. -There is also more riding ahead of the southern trough, in the East. -Finally you have a slower northern stream wave, we just can’t have this end up being too slow.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 EPS mean with another tick south and tick down with mean snowfall totals.. zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: EPS mean with another tick south and tick down with mean snowfall totals.. zzz Euro is the outlier then today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Euro is the outlier then today crazy that they went that way. I was hoping for a more amped look to bring it back to at least where it was last night if not before that. Without any interaction or phasing, a progressive weak system is definitely not out of the realm as fast as things are flying around in this pattern. There is a small threat tomorrow and another threat already next week. We need to start seeing the end of the parade if we want anything truly memorable to happen. Just checked WB....didn't look bad for the Ohio crowd actually, a tad north and lots of 10" amounts. Maybe not a massive big dog, but not bad for a 4-5 day eps mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Good chance that the 18z NAM comes at least a little north. Our southern stream wave isn't quite as far south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Good chance that the 18z NAM comes at least a little north. Our southern stream wave isn't quite as far south on this run.Indeed. This seems to be a continuing trend.Northern wave a bit west too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The NAM is doing things.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Quad Cities afternoon afd is a fun read for winter weather aficionados. Nothing in depth just cold and snow for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Welcome to phasing and a neutral tilt southern trough.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The low pressure is much farther north on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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