HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro south and weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Euro south and weaker It's well south of 12z. The northern stream ended up further west and really dug into MI/WI/MI, which is good for phasing. However, the southern stream ended up much more positive tilt and just continued on east, before phasing over the SE Coast...instead of pushing NE and phasing over the Ohio Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It's well south of 12z. The northern stream ended up further west and really dug into MI/WI/MI, which is good for phasing. However, the southern stream ended up much more positive tilt and just continued on east, before phasing over the SE Coast...instead of pushing NE and phasing over the Ohio Valley. I noticed that as well. It went south but for seemingly different reasons. The rest of the guidance digs the wave into Mexico(or pretty close). The euro appears to my untrained eye to be very strung out and disorganized with the southern stream energy which would be in direct conflict with the rest of the 00z suite. If they dig more, one would assume that those models are stronger/more pronounced with the southern stream at 500mb to the point where they end up far enough south that they miss the northern stream and don't phase until later, if they do at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Every model now has a different solution, we're in wait and see territory now. Actually excited to see the 06Z NAM now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 If this storm continues to wuss out as we get closer I'm hoping that means the early week storm trends stronger. Could definitely see that scenario play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I find it amazing we had all this consistency for like 3-4 days and poof in one run cycle we are at mass chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: If this storm continues to wuss out as we get closer I'm hoping that means the early week storm trends stronger. Could definitely see that scenario play out. The worry I have with that though is that we need the cold air behind this system, if it doesn't phase then you end up with the euro tonight with a good system bad thermos, until that system phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: The worry I have with that though is that we need the cold air behind this system, if it doesn't phase then you end up with the euro tonight with a good system bad thermos, until that system phases. Yeah the baroclinicity was really one of its main selling points on being a big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 As was to be expected, the ensembles all shifted south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06Z NAM is north of 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z NAM is north of 0Z lol, still hot trash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 IWX think's it'll correct north With that said, it is common for models to weaken/suppress a storm in this time range only to slowly adjust back to stronger solutions shown 6-10 days out. The main southern stream wave of interest is still out over the Pacific ocean and doesn't look to enter the observation network until Thursday for better sampling. Bottom line...the potential for a more significant winter storm (6" plus snow and blowing snow) remains on the table. Stay tuned for updates as there are a lot of moving parts still to be resolved going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Follow the modeling trends set with the last system to pass through Ohio last weekend. Northern bumps to finish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06Z GFS coming in a little north, stronger and a little slower . Edit: A little north is a giant understatement, the low tracks through northern Kentucky now instead of Tennessee 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's typical to see at least one model hold sway as to what you think might happen. When they all trend in the same direction,despite lack of sampling it's an ominous sign. Could be as Cyclone said a case of delayed, but not denied. Plenty of ingredients in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hard to ignore pretty good consensus now. Not that there can't be more changes, good or bad. Regardless, looks like a pretty good storm for the OV crew. Just hoping for a couple inches up here, a refresher of sort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I would not call anything consensus right now. There was more of a consensus several days ago, I get a kick out of how the models can be consistent with each other far out, then as you get closer to the event they go haywire and in different directions. 6ZGFS as already corrected North from 00z as well as GEFS. Todays runs should be...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not looking as good for Toronto now. What a surprise. I'm thinking maybe 2" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looking at GEFS individual ensemble members. A couple of trends to take note of between 00Z and 06Z. Much better clustering at 06Z at hour 66. All members sans four in the panhandle of Texas, whereas the 00Z had several in Oklahoma, a couple in Kansas, and couple lagging behind in New Mexico, and two in Mexico. At 06Z hour 72, all members are in Oklahoma, compared to the 00Z which had some in Texas. At 06Z hour 78, there's less spread than hour 84 in the 00Z, again, the southernmost members are not in Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I would not call anything consensus right now. There was more of a consensus several days ago, I get a kick out of how the models can be consistent with each other far out, then as you get closer to the event they go haywire and in different directions. 6ZGFS as already corrected North from 00z as well as GEFS. Todays runs should be...interesting. Consensus is in the eye of the beholder I guess. For MBY anyways, pretty clear move in the models..and not for the better. And IMO, the ensembles have been almost useless. Especially the EPS. Consistently too far north up until this point, but they are lower skill. Alas, storm hasn’t happened yet. We watch and wait... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 They look better than last night. I get The mid range gfs op gaffes that always happens. The NAM in long range lol we all know it was comical. EURO and Canadian I think have been most consistent models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Woke up to read the LOT AFD, definitely a different tone today. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: They look better than last night. I get The mid range gfs op gaffes that always happens. The NAM in long range lol we all know it was comical. EURO and Canadian I think have been most consistent models. The Euro took a huge move south at 00z and the GGEM has been all over the place. I wouldn’t call that consistent. I would argue actually that the GFS OP has been more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 hours ago, Stebo said: I find it amazing we had all this consistency for like 3-4 days and poof in one run cycle we are at mass chaos. Took the words right out of my mouth. Ha. Well let's see if 12z continues the chaos or if we start trending better again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Jeez the local CBS station in Toledo going with 3-6” for this one. That sounds crazy just going on moisture availability alone honestly. I mean while a legit blizzard with 10-15” would be awesome from an enjoyment standpoint, it’s hard to fathom predicting what amounts to a strong clipper out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Jeez the local CBS station in Toledo going with 3-6” for this one. That sounds crazy just going on moisture availability alone honestly. I mean while a legit blizzard with 10-15” would be awesome from an enjoyment standpoint, it’s hard to fathom predicting what amounts to a strong clipper out of this It’s been an abysmal winter up to this point. Take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, King James said: Woke up to read the LOT AFD, definitely a different tone today. . I thought it was another fine job of laying out the possibilities, while clearly stating there is still much uncertainty. As there is with any weather event. The tone has always been cautious....as it should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: It’s been an abysmal winter up to this point. Take it. by march 15th you'll be begging for spring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baum said: by march 15th you'll be begging for spring.... I hate spring. If winter could live forever I’d wish it upon us all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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