UMB WX Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We say a prayer for STL and CMH again, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, mimillman said: Welcome, and may we both do well in our great city. Nothing like a good 84 hour NAM map to kick off the 00z suite. Even if by some chance the NAM is on the right track, I think a farther south track would probably prolong the LES on the western side of the lake. This setup is really going to have to go out of its way to not produce sig snow in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z runs were the south shifts and now 0z runs are the crazies? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, geddyweather said: I’d paint a swath of pink along that rain/snow line. No way it’s a clean switchover. Yeah, I don't think the ICON ptype plots sleet/zr for whatever reason, at least on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 what impact (if any) does this little system ahead of it have on the main system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: what impact (if any) does this little system ahead of it have on the main system? FWIW, it's farther north on the GFS, by a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Excited to see all the Chicago people on the board and many from the old Accu forum... I’m keeping a close eye on this storm. Going to be downtown overnight Friday at the Museum of Science and Industry for a sleepover with my kid and if one of the many models verifies and hits N IL I’m going to wake up in the city with a ton of snow on the ground (with it still falling) and a 60 mile drive home. Can only wait to see if the track impacts the area but my question to the group is when/if the lake effect will kick in. Toying with the idea of spending Saturday in the city if this bad and not even attempting the 60 mile drive out west back home early Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS south and weaker from 18z At 500mb the set up is a lot more similar to the 12z with the upper level ridge out west shunted east and the PV oriented more towards the east. The effect looks to make everything more progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GFS is coming in further south with the southern wave, and slower with the northern wave. That delays any possible phase till after it's past the region. In other words, not good for the Chicago crew...as it leads to a further south/weaker solution. Edit: This run also digs the southern wave into Mexico, but not nearly as far as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The level of inconsistency the OP GFS has been showing is still going, wait for the ensembles again is the motto of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 0z GFS going to be terrible everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS going to be terrible everywhere. Center of low pressure has to be a solid 200 miles south from the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Keep in mind things always seem to lose a bit of grip at this time frame, though it shouldn’t be too surprising. Curious to see if a new trend develops tonight or if this is just random operational spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS is coming in further south with the southern wave, and slower with the northern wave. That delays any possible phase till after it's past the region. In other words, not good for the Chicago crew...as it leads to a further south/weaker solution. Edit: This run also digs the southern wave into Mexico, but not nearly as far as the NAM. if i recall correctly, GHD1 did this exact same thing about this far out. hopefully its a sign :} 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Models just seem absolutely lost tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS going to be terrible everywhere. Since it was horrific with the last storm hopefully it's out to lunch with this run. Will be interesting to see what the GEFS do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GEM coming in south with the Thursday wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Models just seem absolutely lost tonight This morning's UK model run doesn't seem quite as crazy now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: Since it was horrific with the last storm hopefully it's out to lunch with this run. Will be interesting to see what the GEFS do. This. But a somber start to the 00z suite. I still think all the ingredients are there, but expectations are definitely tempering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: if i recall correctly, GHD1 did this exact same thing about this far out. hopefully its a sign :} Got a question: (I really didn't track weather much until like 2014 maybe, so I have fairly little recollection of GHD 1 other than it being awesome once the snow started) at roughly what point did it become apparent with GHD 1 that 20"+ amounts were possible? Was it feasible from the start? Or did become a trend later on? Also, did the storm shift to its actualized area of effect shortly before the day it hit or was N IL always the jackpot zone? 'Pologies for the off-topic comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I am trying to figure out why the GFS handled things the way it did because it wasn't like it started off differently at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS going to be terrible everywhere. even the LES snow is reduced with warmer/delay of 850mb temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: I am trying to figure out why the GFS handled things the way it did because it wasn't like it started off differently at all. Would be funny if the ensembles end up north again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 0z GGEM actually came north. Way farther north than any other 0z guidance so far. SLP travels through far S. Illinois. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I will say our vort for the storm is in the middle of the Pacific no where near land right now too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I am trying to figure out why the GFS handled things the way it did because it wasn't like it started off differently at all. I think it has to do with that upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska honestly. It shunts the ridge out west pretty significantly and prevents the southern wave from digging enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Would be funny if the ensembles end up north again If they don't change I would immediately toss the OP, we won't know for an hour though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The GEM is probably the most amped it's ever been on this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Note the shifts as they come but don't get too invested in a particular model cycle at this point. Thursday, especially 00z Thursday evening and beyond is when it's time to take things more seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The GEM is probably the most amped it's ever been on this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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