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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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Just now, zinski1990 said:

almost identical run. Based off gfs and euro here in west indy I'm really on the edge of very heavy snow or ice storm. 

Agreed, the shift north is minor at best. For you guys along 70 though, it is such a razor's edge between ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Agreed, the shift north is minor at best. For you guys along 70 though, it is such a razor's edge between ice and snow.

I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much

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2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much

You don't talk about .5+ ice until you have to... 

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13 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

I didn't even notice a shift at all. I noticed though it showed more freezing rain which I'm thinking is something this storm will have but for some reason hasn't been talked about much

It will likely be a problem wherever it happens, especially with the wind.  

Just remember when looking at the ice maps that you typically don't accrete everything that is shown as freezing rain, unless it's a drawn out event with lighter rates.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It will likely be a problem wherever it happens, especially with the wind.  

Just remember when looking at the ice maps that you typically don't accrete everything that is shown as freezing rain, unless it's a drawn out event with lighter rates.

Looking down at Morgan-Monroe State Forest southern Indiana, NWS is showing an inch of rain during the middle of the day on Saturday.  Even with near freezing temps, I doubt much can accumulate with that much liquid falling.  (I'm camping there Friday noon to Monday afternoon and could come home to a huge mess of snow on Monday.)  

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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

Just not buying these high amounts with such an E-W direction. The Euro seems most realistic with its negative tilt

What? No model goes negative tilt until after it leaves the region, and the ECMWF is fairly E-W overall with the snowfall axis until OH on east.

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8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Just not buying these high amounts with such an E-W direction. The Euro seems most realistic with its negative tilt

The system that just hit had pretty high amounts with less moisture moving W to E. I don't see why that would change this go around...

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A lot of the notorious systems do have more SW-NE components, but not always.  You can certainly get a very big storm on more of a west-east trajectory.  The Feb 2015 storm is an example of that.  The Gulf is wide open in this case, which is obviously very important.  

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks good for the first siggy snow since November.  I'd prelim call for 4-6" imby, but it's pretty obvious looking at the dynamics involved that the max band is going to drop 1'+, probably south of here.

In Bermuda this weekend, so the only thing I'll be shovelling is mixed drinks into my gut. :sun:

I'll go with 6", but hope for about 8-10".

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32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

What? No model goes negative tilt until after it leaves the region, and the ECMWF is fairly E-W overall with the snowfall axis until OH on east.

Which is where it’s highest totals are projected in Ohio. 

Also the last storm put its highest totals down much further south where moisture is more abundant than the I-80 corridor. Just hard to believe in a cutter dropping that much snow in this area when typically the big dog storms have an Indy to Cleveland type of tilt to it

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A lot of the notorious systems do have more SW-NE components, but not always.  You can certainly get a very big storm on more of a west-east trajectory.  The Feb 2015 storm is an example of that.  The Gulf is wide open in this case, which is obviously very important.  

The system that just hit had pretty high amounts with less moisture moving W to E. I don't see why that would change this go around...

The Euro shows pwats of upward of 1.5" (spots pushing 2"!) in the warm sector available to wrap back into the cold air, with a large area of 0.6"+ in the cold sector. I totally buy the potential for extreme cold sector qpf and snow amounts unless the system ends up a sheared out pos. Orientation W-E vs SW to NE matters less than available moisture.  

With this system, should it come close to what's modeled on Euro or further maxes out will likely have, in addition to antecedent Pac moisture, additional deep layer tropical Pac moisture drawn northward as it matures, which was easily seen on w/v with just this past system and GHDII as recent examples. In addition, once it emerges into the Plains you'll ramp up low level moisture advection from the Gulf.

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

The Euro shows pwats of upward of 1.5" in the warm sector available to wrap back into the cold air. I totally buy the potential for extreme cold sector qpf and snow amounts unless the system ends up a sheared out pos. Orientation W-E vs SW to NE matters less than available moisture.

With this system, should it come close to what's modeled on Euro or further maxes out will likely have additional deep layer tropical Pac moisture drawn northward as it matures, which was easily seen on w/v with just this past system and GHDII as recent examples. In addition, once it emerges into the Plains you'll ramp up low level moisture advection from the Gulf.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah the Pacific moisture feed is very abundant, noted by all the rain they are getting in the SW today. Even low vis, currently 1SM at Las Vegas due to light rain and mist. I don't remember the last time they had low vis like that due to precip and moisture abundance in Vegas.

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks good for the first siggy snow since November.  I'd prelim call for 4-6" imby, but it's pretty obvious looking at the dynamics involved that the max band is going to drop 1'+, probably south of here.

In Bermuda this weekend, so the only thing I'll be shovelling is mixed drinks into my gut. :sun:

Great to be back here. It’s been a while since the last snowstorm in November. Based on model trends and gut feeling, I think this one will be a big one for the GTA. Maybe 8-12”.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The Euro shows pwats of upward of 1.5" (spots pushing 2"!) in the warm sector available to wrap back into the cold air, with a large area of 0.6"+ in the cold sector. I totally buy the potential for extreme cold sector qpf and snow amounts unless the system ends up a sheared out pos. Orientation W-E vs SW to NE matters less than available moisture.  

With this system, should it come close to what's modeled on Euro or further maxes out will likely have, in addition to antecedent Pac moisture, additional deep layer tropical Pac moisture drawn northward as it matures, which was easily seen on w/v with just this past system and GHDII as recent examples. In addition, once it emerges into the Plains you'll ramp up low level moisture advection from the Gulf.

 

 

 

 

 

Great points. Your AFD was quite excellent this afternoon. Eager to see 0z runs if they continue what 12z did or shift back. Obviously major shifts still possible till sampling occurs later Thurs and Fri

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