hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, UMB WX said: lol at expecting a north trend. That hasn't happened since Mt Geos moved. Literally just last storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Still a very solid hit for most of the sub forum, especially eastern areas. Just not as widespread as 00z. Would take and run ESP should have some cranked members one would think. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Does anyone have a Euro snowfall map by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: Literally just last storm? Yeah the last storm definitely shifted north after day 4. To be honest we have seen shifts south in this time frame 84-108 before only to see them shift right back north 6-12 hours later. As is though, this run is still good just a bit less on the amounts which is to be expected as the system isn't as phased this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: Literally just last storm? Point taken. I guess it was more of a IMBY whine. I can't remember a NW trend storm here in the middle of winter in yrs. This storm wreaks like all the other wannabe's on the north side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 9:59 AM, Chicago Storm said: I'm intrigued about this period...but there are some fail points. The first potential issue is if that lead wave on Wed/Thur continues to show up in a more organized way, which could lead to a less favorable environment (such as lower heights) for this main system to follow. The second potential issue would be lesser phasing or a total missed phase between the northern and southern stream waves for this main system. The third potential issue would be how far north/south the southern wave comes through the West. The final potential issue would the placement of the PV over Canada, and if it ends up further north or south. So while I can see a big dog happening with 12"+ amounts somewhere, I could also see a weaker/unorganized system way south as well. Edit: Another issue is also placement on northern stream, coming around the PV. perspective. Though I know I'm good for 4 inches per Hoosier.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 A couple things to watch for... Inconsistent handling of the northern lobe of energy rounding the vortex over the Hudson. 00z run was much better timed (albeit it did leave some room for improvement) but the 12z this feature is much slower and a little weaker. Trough/main vort max digs a little deeper than previous runs. True in the GFS too. While those things mean that it was a less widespread snow for the western half of the sub on the 12z suite, there still is a good signal for accumulating snow for a large fraction of people here, with big time snow potential still between I-70/80 in IL/IN/OH. Around this time last week the models were significantly south with their placement of QPF, so just be patient. One of the biggest problems with these events is that everyone latches on to the big runs from 7+ days out. Trends in the D4-5 period are normal and that doesn't mean models won't correct back in different directions over time. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Indy to Mansfield OH do really well on the Euro. That southern cutoff means business from southern IN through the southern half of OH. A nice 3-5" powder event for most of the DVN/LOT areas outside the LM snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, UMB WX said: lol at expecting a north trend. That hasn't happened since Mt Geos moved. Why lol at north trend? Happened last second with this previous storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 North trended MKE and DET to 0 flakes. IMBY - a snowy NW trend in the meat of winter hasn't existed for yrs. That's the way she blows though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Does anyone have a Euro snowfall map by any chance? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, KokomoWX said: Nice, with ratios everyone would be in for a treat still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gas them Gennys up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, KokomoWX said: On to the next run. This would downright scary if this happened. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Well, the Euro says I get either 15 inches of snow or close to an inch of freezing rain and strong winds to knock out power. Too close to the border of each for my liking at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Most models are now showing the dry moat through central Iowa. An initial band of snow streaks across northern Iowa, then the main system organizes well south. I had been saying how Iowa needed the PV lobe to back off, but maybe it's a case of 'be careful what you wish for'. The PV is backoff off, but the main energy is digging even farther south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Well, the Euro says I get either 15 inches of snow or close to an inch of freezing rain and strong winds to knock out power. Too close to the border of each for my liking at this distance. Yeah those 850's are too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro ensembles more amped. Widespread 10”+. There must be some nutso members 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ensembles are very similar to last night. Very tight clustering of tracks across the Ohio river, will post when I’m home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nearly every ensemble takes the low through KY mostly along the river, the op is south of every ensemble member. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Every ensemble takes the low through KY mostly along the river, the op is south of every ensemble member. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 This is a good learning lesson for everyone: Dont freak over the operational runs, wait for the ensembles 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Ensembles are very similar to last night. Very tight clustering of tracks across the Ohio river, will post when I’m home 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Nearly every ensemble takes the low through KY mostly along the river, the op is south of every ensemble member. If that's the case then the ensembles are more reliable than the operational. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 For those on the north end of the storm looking for a bump north, those looking for a cutter, or the historic-like 0z ECMWF run to occur... The one big negative I see that I didn't see before is that the main PV over the Hudson actually gets dragged east by a big storm around Greenland...just as the northern stream wave is diving south around the PV...which pulls the wave more the the east as well. One of the big reasons I believe the 0z ECMWF was a huge run is that the northern wave was faster and the PV was centered further west early on. This combination allowed the northern wave to dig more before sliding more easterly, allowing for some phasing earlier. Placement of the southern wave is key as well. There is good agreement on it coming onshore in N. CA and diving SE, with the base of the trough down into El Paso eventually. After that what is needed is key timing, as well as the wave closing off further north. The 0z ECMWF also had this occur and what was aforementioned with the northern wave, which helped lead to the big run. The lead minor wave on Wed/Thur will be fully sampled for this evenings runs. The south and northern wave will be well sampled by Thur evenings runs, and even more so after. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: I would put this energy vortex right up against Super Bowl, GHD and the 1999 storms in terms of Great Lakes snowfall/wind potential. You just look at that vortex off the pacific your like wow!!!! What a high priced texas hooker. your never positive. Game Ovah! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Well, it may not develop and end up a ho hum wave. 50/50 shot. now I feel better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro snow map has me at 1" of ice. Great. I guess I'll make hotel reservations. Our power goes out with a 20 m.p.h. breeze... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana AFD this afternoon... Warm advection/fgen induced snow should overspread the area late Friday night into Saturday morning, with forcing gradually transitioning to deformation in nature by late Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening. Details in exact snow amounts will need to be resolved over next several forecasts but some areas could see over 10 inches of snow with this system if expected track verifies. Still a bit too early for headlines regarding this system, but if above trends continue, headlines will likely be needed in the next 24 to 36 hours for the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: For those on the north end of the storm looking for a bump north, those looking for a cutter, or the historic-like 0z ECMWF run to occur... The one big negative I see that I didn't see before is that the main PV over the Hudson actually gets dragged east by a big storm around Greenland...just as the northern stream wave is diving south around the PV...which pulls the wave more the the east as well. One of the big reasons I believe the 0z ECMWF was a huge run is that the northern wave was faster and the PV was centered further west early on. This combination allowed the northern wave to dig more before sliding more easterly, allowing for some phasing earlier. Placement of the southern wave is key as well. There is good agreement on it coming onshore in N. CA and diving SE, with the base of the trough down into El Paso eventually. After that what is needed is key timing, as well as the wave closing off further north. The 0z ECMWF also had this occur and what was aforementioned with the northern wave, which helped lead to the big run. The lead minor wave on Wed/Thur will be fully sampled for this evenings runs. The south and northern wave will be well sampled by Thur evenings runs, and even more so after. Good points. I wonder if a decent # of the 12z Euro ensemble members had positive developments in this regard, given that the ensemble mean was a bit NW of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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