Radtechwxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: If we get a slightly better phase on that we could be talking more widespread 2’ totals further NW. Oh boy That's what I'm hoping but I would be very happy with that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Man I'm licking my lips, That gradient keeps getting better every 24 hours. I haven't been in a blizzard since 78. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: That's what I'm hoping but I would be very happy with that run Hell, I’d be happy with 8”. But of course fingers crossed the stronger phase ends up happening. Certainly getting closer to something like that then we were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Max snowfall that run was nearly 40” around Lima, OH.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, hlcater said: Like normal, this isn't my map. So no, I cant give you the amounts farther east :(. I have accuweather pro. How'd they get the counties on the map? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 If that 00Z FV3 verifies, with the cold coming in behind its gonna be winter till March lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yes, this is actually epitomizing my thought from the other day, the northern stream has sped up such that now another piece of energy is coming down at the right time not to mention the Thursday thing is weaker/quicker allowing for ridging and the southern stream to go more neutrally tilted in the plains.Yep, really not far at all from the extreme totals being pulled farther north. Southern wave was much improved until final approach toward northern piece, going neutral tilt and closing off at h5 over the Plains. If we can keep that southern wave stronger for longer, it would argue for gaining more latitude before phase. Great trends overall on that run. I expect to see some explosive solutions on the EPS members. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Yep, really not far at all from the extreme totals being pulled farther north. Southern wave was much improved until final approach toward northern piece, going neutral tilt and closing off at h5 over the Plains. If we can keep that southern wave stronger for longer, it would argue for gaining more latitude before phase. Great trends overall on that run. I expect to see some explosive solutions on the EPS members. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk All I want is if it phases, no rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 All I want is if it phases, no rain here.I think our latitudes are in good shape, still would be enough confluence from PV to your north to act as a pseudo block from enabling a hard cut. We just want the more SW to NE trajectory you mentioned earlier. This run was a step toward getting that if we can get the further needed improvements.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: I think our latitudes are in good shape, still would be enough confluence from PV to your north to act as a pseudo block from enabling a hard cut. We just want the more SW to NE trajectory you mentioned earlier. This run was a step toward getting that if we can get the further needed improvements. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah I agree. kind of one of those deals where the system moves NE a bit and then slides eastward. Almost like the Super Tuesday storm of 08 only displaced more south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 5-6" of fresh powder for this area on the new Euro. Not nearly as exciting as areas south and east but I'd definitely take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: 5-6" of fresh powder for this area on the new Euro. Not nearly as exciting as areas south and east but I'd definitely take it. After the last 4 or 5 winters if this pans out its hitting the lottery. I'm changing my name and hiding from the relatives lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, hlcater said: Like normal, this isn't my map. So no, I cant give you the amounts farther east :(. That would break the all time record of 19" here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 EPS control is even further north, low down to 995 in Southern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: EPS control is even further north, low down to 995 in Southern OH. That would absolutely hammer northern Ohio with heavy snow I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Most of the lows are stronger this run, 990-996mb. Mean gets down to 998mb at day 4.5-5.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Most of the lows are stronger this run, 990-996mb. Mean gets down to 998mb at day 4.5-5.0. Still, nowhere near the pressure of '78 blizzard tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, chuckster2012 said: Still, nowhere near the pressure of '78 blizzard tho! No, but this one with the high pressing in, is going to have one hell of a gradient, some of the highs on the ensembles get to 1050+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The mean at day 5.5 is at least 10" at 10:1 on a line starting from Peoria to Buffalo, starting at 50 miles wide and growing to about 150 miles wide. Once you get to Ohio the mean is closer to 15". Downright stupid consensus at this point, I mean this is the mean and at 10:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Most of the lows are stronger this run, 990-996mb. Mean gets down to 998mb at day 4.5-5.0. I'm all for a late cut just keep that warm tongue south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: No, but this one with the high pressing in, is going to have one hell of a gradient, some of the highs on the ensembles get to 1050+ I don't know what the high pressure that followed the 78 bomb was but I know the temp. crashed to 7° the next morning. Low got down to 28.76" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Jackstraw said: I'm all for a late cut just keep that warm tongue south of me. 70 north is gold in Indiana. It isn't until you get to C-bus before things slant a bit ENE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Stebo said: 70 north is gold in Indiana. It isn't until you get to C-bus before things slant a bit ENE from there. I'm on the fence down here in SE Indiana again. Just hope I don't get ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, chuckster2012 said: I'm on the fence down here in SE Indiana again. Just hope I don't get ice... Unfortunately someone is getting ice with this but it does look transient at this point because the system is moving quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The OP Euro with winds 25-40 gusts 35 to 50 through central IN up through west central - NW OH and SEMI Sat. night. That would make 6 in of snow seem like 2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Was laying in bed thinking about what the EPS would show. Could be a long week. In reference to what was posted above, the gradient in the 1978 storm was like 80 mb when the low was at its max depth in the low 950s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Could be looking at 40-50 with this one if it performs which ain't to shabby. Setup is different and as you posted before isobar distance makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z Euro Ens. Mean in close agreement with the Control run, if not ever so slightly further NW... Heaviest axis of snow from IA/IL/MO tri-state, to FWA, to Toldeo/Sandusky. Bulk of low tracks along OH river, with a few more NWerly outliers than SEerly. LA based, but will be riding this one out in Columbus/Marysville, OH... edit: Also woke up on GHD in Columbus to FZRA, made it back to Chicago just as snow began, so...serendipity? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 06z GFS not missing a beat. This is along with 20-30 MPH sustained winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: 06z GFS not missing a beat. This is along with 20-30 MPH sustained winds too. Looks to have shifted 20 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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