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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

At this point,  I wouldn't be surprised if someone in this sub gets a Blizzard Warning out of this. Winds and what will be heavy rates, especially with lake enhancement in LOT will make them prime candidates.

The B word was already mentioned earlier by Stebo.  Maybe he will be the good luck charm.

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Just now, Indystorm said:

The B word was already mentioned earlier by Stebo.  Maybe he will be the good luck charm.

Haha dammit now it's on me. But seriously the pressure gradient is stout with this, I would expect a good deal of wind and it dont take much to get blizzard conditions once you get out to the plains with how flat things are.

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13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Haha dammit now it's on me. But seriously the pressure gradient is stout with this, I would expect a good deal of wind and it dont take much to get blizzard conditions once you get out to the plains with how flat things are.

I was the first one to mention it in the med/long range thread, so any credit or blame goes to me.  :P

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

LES setup will certainly feature extreme lake induced instability with 850s plunging to -20C or colder over the lake by early Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb lifting to closer to 700 mb during Sunday as cold air mass deepens. The inversion height is probably on the low side but when you consider that the DGZ is so low in such a cold air mass, it may be less of an issue than you'd otherwise think.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I’ve always wanted to go lake-effect snow chasing. This might be the opportunity to do it. Getting back though may take more than a day...

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ECMWF could realistically still get better.

 

It had absolute perfect timing of the northern and southern stream. The only issue is the southern stream gets strung out, which prevents deepening, a cut NE, and likely an even greater solution.

 

Even without that, that was a big run for a big portion of the sub-forum.

 

 

.

 

 

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

ECMWF could realistically still get better.

 

It had absolute perfect timing of the northern and southern stream. The only issue is the southern stream gets strung out, which prevents deepening, a cut NE, and likely and even greater solution.

 

Even without that, that was a big run for a big portion of the sub-forum.

 

 

.

 

Yes, this is actually epitomizing my thought from the other day, the northern stream has sped up such that now another piece of energy is coming down at the right time not to mention the Thursday thing is weaker/quicker allowing for ridging and the southern stream to go more neutrally tilted in the plains.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

12z had somewhat less on the northern end.

Yea I noticed that. Beefed up totals on the edge. Very nice run. Like Chicago Storm said, the more strung out southern vort prevented an even more extreme solution but this is still crazy. A large area of extreme snow amounts. Likely would see some pretty robust winds to

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