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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I dunno. I just can't shake having a really good feeling about this storm. Maybe I'll be dead wrong, but I think northern IL will see a non-dissapointing amount of snow. Just a hunch lol

For the record, I'm liking a FWA --> TOL snowfall mean axis. Euro 14/18z = little dog showing Big Dog the path. Just my 2 pennies

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14 minutes ago, hlcater said:

There's a pretty monstrous area of 8"+ on the 00z GFS. Came in more juiced and stronger all around. Big broad stripe across pretty much the whole sub. Gonna be a lot of happy people with that run.

 

EDIT: Pic added.

 

 snku_acc.us_mw.png

It’s.....beautiful..

My guard is still up considering the time remaining, but there have been some fairly welcoming signs this evening. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is up there with the most ridiculous death band signatures I've seen off of Lake Michigan.  There will be good inland penetration in this setup, but it might be overdoing those heavier rates so far inland.

 gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_22.thumb.png.d79dd9cfa14f692e53cfedc4366675b8.png

It’ll be interesting to see how high the amounts will be modeled inside that band once we get in range of hi-res models

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Clear as day trend on the GFS along the East Coast where the Thu/Fri system is now exiting (trending north) which allows for higher heights behind it across the Midwest/OV, which in turn allows for our system to then cut a little more each of the last several GFS runs. Making all the difference with how far north that lead system exits. 

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9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

It’ll be interesting to see how high the amounts will be modeled inside that band once we get in range of hi-res models

Very impressive ..I recall a few set ups like that over the years....one time a light band went all the way into KY off the lake...it had a break in southern Indiana but reformed as it got lifted up over the hills of Northern KY..the LOU AFD actually discussed Lake effect snow!

 

 

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LES setup will certainly feature extreme lake induced instability with 850s plunging to -20C or colder over the lake by early Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb lifting to closer to 700 mb during Sunday as cold air mass deepens. The inversion height is probably on the low side but when you consider that the DGZ is so low in such a cold air mass, it may be less of an issue than you'd otherwise think.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

LES setup will certainly feature extreme lake induced instability with 850s plunging to -20C or colder over the lake by early Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb lifting to closer to 700 mb during Sunday as cold air mass deepens. The inversion height is probably on the low side but when you consider that the DGZ is so low in such a cold air mass, it may be less of an issue than you'd otherwise think.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

The lift intersects the DGZ quite nicely on the soundings I have checked.

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22 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

It’s.....beautiful..

My guard is still up considering the time remaining, but there have been some fairly welcoming signs this evening. 

That's TERRIBLE for MBY...1/2" . Hope the cold air is faster and stronger than progged or this will be a cold, heavy rain for me and maybe ice.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm kinda shocked to see a 1044 mb sfc high on that model.  Just from watching it over the years, it seems like it underestimates the pressures in sfc highs, sometimes significantly. 

It is failing to build the heights up after the Thursday system, there is no reason it shouldn't be either, that system doesn't stall out and moves right on out to sea.

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