mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just looking at 500, 18z GFS should come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Music to Hoosier's ears: BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FROM BLENDS WITH CHANCE OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR FAR NW INDIANA COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. POTENTIAL HERE FOR A VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT COULD REMAIN PERSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND DROP VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED GIVEN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SETUP FITS CLIMO FOR THE INTENSE HEAVY SNOW SINGLE BANDS IN THIS AREA. STAY TUNED! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18Z GFS is northhh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Good jog northwest. Great set up for lake enhancement/lake effect. 1045+mb high incoming. Great ratios. I’m getting ahead of myself, but you gotta love this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Music to Hoosier's ears: BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FROM BLENDS WITH CHANCE OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR FAR NW INDIANA COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. POTENTIAL HERE FOR A VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND THAT COULD REMAIN PERSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND DROP VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL. EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED GIVEN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND SETUP FITS CLIMO FOR THE INTENSE HEAVY SNOW SINGLE BANDS IN THIS AREA. STAY TUNED! Oh yes Practically everything looks great except the inversion heights which are kind of meh, but still good enough in the presence of the other very favorable factors. Plus I am basing the comment about the inversion heights off of the GFS. We'll see if the NAM is a bit better when it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 looks like there is going to be a big blob of precip south this time....got to watch out for moisture robbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The CIPS analog list is a who's who. 108 hours has the following storms on the list: VD 2007, GHD 2011, Jan 99, PD II. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The CIPS analog list is a who's who. 108 hours has the following storms on the list: VD 2007, GHD 2011, Jan 99, PD II. VD 2007 you say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18Z FV3 is drumroll... north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chambana said: VD 2007 you say That's actually the #1 analog on the list. Forgot to mention 12/15/07 is also on there, and then some smaller systems. To see several large/memorable storms is nice and basically reinforces what we know -- the potential for something big is there if things play out right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I think even I weaseled out a nice total in VD 2007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Last weekend was definitely not a long duration WAA event. How so? It wasn't solely WAA. But that definitely was a big part of it. As the upper low and surface system approached then it became more driven from the deformation band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z FV3 is drumroll... north South. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Whatever it is it looks like a CF in the OV. We pray for Ohio again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That's actually the #1 analog on the list. Forgot to mention 12/15/07 is also on there, and then some smaller systems. To see several large/memorable storms is nice and basically reinforces what we know -- the potential for something big is there if things play out right. It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here. Edit: in addition to the above, there was also a significant lake enhancement component to the totals in NW IN, with some localized ~18" amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The CIPS analog list is a who's who. 108 hours has the following storms on the list: VD 2007, GHD 2011, Jan 99, PD II. Jackpot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Me me, that was me! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It's not on the list but this setup to me is pretty reminiscent of 1/4-5/14. I know you or someone else mentioned the similarities to that event as well. It had the initial fronto snows in northern IL that were more significant than earlier modeled and also the main wave and surface low trended northwest leading up to the event. Also the huge cold dump following closely on the heels of the synoptic snow. Outside of GHDI & II, that's one of my favorite events since I've lived here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah there are definite similarities, only that event was more SW-NE running with this being W-E, but all the pieces are quite the same. Also that event was preceded with a major event a few days beforehand where as this event was a week difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Stebo said: Yeah there are definite similarities, only that event was more SW-NE running with this being W-E, but all the pieces are quite the same. All other things being equal, would a W-E trajectory be more beneficial for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, RobertSul said: All other things being equal, would a W-E trajectory be more beneficial for our area? Actually I would prefer something moving in from the SW because it would allow for a NE lake enhancement fetch off of Huron. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's actually the #1 analog on the list. Forgot to mention 12/15/07 is also on there, and then some smaller systems. To see several large/memorable storms is nice and basically reinforces what we know -- the potential for something big is there if things play out right. One of the most incredible storms that I've ever lived through. 17" in Ottawa - I think Toronto got about 8-10" out of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, Stebo said: Jackpot 2 hours ago, mimillman said: Good jog northwest. Great set up for lake enhancement/lake effect. 1045+mb high incoming. Great ratios. I’m getting ahead of myself, but you gotta love this. Sorry, I'm just scrolling through all of this. How is it looking for Toronto? I'm hoping for at least 2-4" and for temperatures to drop to zero behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 DVN is pretty bullish, already featuring categorical probs for the entire CWA for Friday night. Friday/Saturday... This period represents a potential stronger system and more impactful winter weather, as energy diving south from Canada attempts to phase with energy in strong southern stream jet. While confidence is increasing that the area will be impacted by a round of wintry precipitation, it remains low on timing/track and subsequent precipitation amounts/type. Northern energy looks to dislodge a large chunk of Arctic air sending it southward. This will aid in enhancement of the baroclinicity/ thermal gradient, which coupled with strong dynamics (left exit region) should be favorable for strong frontal circulation and FGen forcing. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see models trend stronger and subsequently wetter with this system. Bottom line for now... Confidence is increasing on a storm system to impact the area Friday PM into Saturday with accumulating snow, and a chance for a wintry mix mainly south. Low confidence exists on any amounts and location. Still a lot of details that need to get resolved, but anyone planning travel late this week and weekend will need to stay tuned on this potential winter storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 One similarity between all of the AFD's from Iowa through Ohio, "If you have travel plans this weekend please be aware" etc or something like that. There were 7 deaths across the board attributed to last weekends snow. Not sure if the wording is in response or if they see the potential for a really big debilitating widespread storm. I've just never seen consistent wording like that across so many AFD's this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I dunno. I just can't shake having a really good feeling about this storm. Maybe I'll be dead wrong, but I think northern IL will see a non-dissapointing amount of snow. Just a hunch lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yeah there are definite similarities, only that event was more SW-NE running with this being W-E, but all the pieces are quite the same. Also that event was preceded with a major event a few days beforehand where as this event was a week difference.Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yep and some of the EPS members did have one, even a couple sniffing out a mix locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Also we can still get to a more northeast trajectory if we can get neutral or negative tilt to southern wave or earlier phasing with northern stream/PV lobe like last night's Ukie and the stronger ensemble members. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Euro was pretty close to a neutral tilt, just a tad too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 DVN is pretty bullish, already featuring categorical probs for the entire CWA for Friday night. Friday/Saturday... This period represents a potential strongersystem and more impactful winter weather, as energy diving southfrom Canada attempts to phase with energy in strong southernstream jet. While confidence is increasing that the area will beimpacted by a round of wintry precipitation, it remains low ontiming/track and subsequent precipitation amounts/type. Northernenergy looks to dislodge a large chunk of Arctic air sending itsouthward. This will aid in enhancement of the baroclinicity/thermal gradient, which coupled with strong dynamics (left exitregion) should be favorable for strong frontal circulation andFGen forcing. Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised to see models trendstronger and subsequently wetter with this system.Bottom line for now... Confidence is increasing on a storm systemto impact the area Friday PM into Saturday with accumulatingsnow, and a chance for a wintry mix mainly south. Low confidenceexists on any amounts and location. Still a lot of details thatneed to get resolved, but anyone planning travel late this weekand weekend will need to stay tuned on this potential winterstorm.Just as an aside, about the way PoPs are done in extended range at central region offices, we have a model blend called superblend that includes previous forecast, and certain percentages of raw model (which are themselves derived from model QPF) and MOS pops. Sometimes this can be fairly deterministic and be prone to fairly large shift to shift changes. However, it's by and large a huge time saver for us to do it this way.Superblend is the baseline starting point period 4 (12z 2 days from now) and onward on a day shift for all of our weather elements and we collaborate changes to these elements when needed (most often temps, pops and qpf). Eventually this year, probably delayed because of the shutdown, we'll he going to the National Blend as our starting point and I think that'll be done nationally.When there is categorical pops several days out, if surrounding offices don't feel they're warranted, we often lower them to likely or even cap them at chance (25-54%). Having worked today, there was no chatter about changing the Friday night 06z-12z pops given the overall very good agreement in the models and their ensembles in measurable qpf in that 6 hour period. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good read/analysis on the weekend storm potential - http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011419.htm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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