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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Euro bumped north.  I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio.   Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be :yikes:

It obviously would be if the euro is right. Other models are showing freezing rain too just not like the euro. 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Euro bumped north.  I checked on WB and it never gets above freezing during the 2" of qpf that falls across parts of southern Ohio.   Haven't heard much about an ice storm component to this....is that a real possibility? that would be :yikes:

The Euro may be sniffing something out ... certainly a long ways to go, but I really don't want to be staring down the barrel of a massive ice storm!

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I'm intrigued about this period...but there are some fail points.

The first potential issue is if that lead wave on Wed/Thur continues to show up in a more organized way, which could lead to a less favorable environment (such as lower heights) for this main system to follow. The second potential issue would be lesser phasing or a total missed phase between the northern and southern stream waves for this main system. The third potential issue would be how far north/south the southern wave comes through the West. The final potential issue would the placement of the PV over Canada, and if it ends up further north or south. 

So while I can see a big dog happening with 12"+ amounts somewhere, I could also see a weaker/unorganized system way south as well.

Edit: Another issue is also placement on northern stream, coming around the PV.

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3 hours ago, AppsRunner said:

Feeling about as good as I could in Iowa. Definitely going to need the snow to make the -10s/-20s afterwards at least somewhat bearable. Looking forward to tracking this week. 

Yea no matter how models handle this one, much of Iowa seems to receive some amount of snow. It’s almost a lock in that it does, indeed, snow. How much is a different story lol.

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38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm intrigued about this period...but there are some fail points.

The first potential issue is if that lead wave on Wed/Thur continues to show up in a more organized way, which could lead to a less favorable environment (such as lower heights) for this main system to follow. The second potential issue would be lesser phasing or a total missed phase between the northern and southern stream waves for this main system. The third potential issue would be how far north/south the southern wave comes through the West. The final potential issue would the placement of the PV over Canada, and if it ends up further north or south. 

So while I can see a big dog happening with 12"+ amounts somewhere, I could also see a weaker/unorganized system way south as well.

Edit: Another issue is also placement on northern stream, coming around the PV.

I agree. This has all the makings of a major storm but with so many pieces and that lead system, it definitely complicates matters. I couldn't help but notice though that the amount of moisture, the placement and strength of the high reminded me of GHD 2011 but I know that trough went neg tilt and the sfc low got decently strong as it passed through southern IL 

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19 minutes ago, mimillman said:

It’s a solid hit for a good chunk of us. Would take that and run

Agree. 

And, you just get the feeling that the intense cold/PV in southern Canada is waiting to be tapped at some point.  Just need a clipper and/or major storm to drag it down. Obviously it's very far out there and hasn't really moved up in time...but, verbatim, thicknesses on the 12z FV3 are sub-500 for much of the western Great Lakes for the entire Day 12-16 period.

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Euro shunted good deal south of 00z. Still, it looks decent for most of the sub forum especially factoring in higher ratios.

One big difference I’ve noticed is the Euro actually closing off the low at 500mb. Trough axis tries to go neutral but is just a tad too late, perhaps due to a slightly more southwestern positioning of the PV this run.

It’s very close and needs to be watched.

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Euro shunted good deal south of 00z. Still, it looks decent for most of the sub forum especially factoring in higher ratios.

One big difference I’ve noticed is the Euro actually closing off the low at 500mb. Trough axis tries to go neutral but is just a tad too late, perhaps due to a slightly more southwestern positioning of the PV this run.

It’s very close and needs to be watched.

Nice to have the lake as a fallback option.  I don't know if I've ever felt this good about 4+ this far out

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