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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

 This is more due to the wave crossing the Rockies/lee side cyclogenesis further south and remaining positively tilted, rather than swinging out to neutral/negative and allowing the low to cut. 

Oh I am fine with the storm not cutting because I know how that one would work out.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I'd be far more concerned about something like that affecting the track than the snowpack.

Oh I agree, the snowpack point isn't number 1 on the list but it can be a factor especially initial positioning of baroclinicity, as I noted before that it could be moot anyways with a strong enough LLJ.

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18 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My thought though is that the Euro is more amplified than anything and that also works in the direction of stronger highs too. Also the euro was the furthest south with the storm that just occurred only to come north as the storm closed in, so do have that going against the suppressed Euro solution.

Euro handled the most recent storm better than the god awful GFS. The FV3 was probably best.

FWIW though, the FV3 looks most similar to the GFS at hour 120

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Euro handled the most recent storm better than the god awful GFS. The FV3 was probably best.

FWIW though, the FV3 looks most similar to the GFS at hour 120

At this junction before the storm the GFS was actually more correct, it just got worse closer in where the Euro got better.

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For Chicago area, the lake enhancement signal looks very good at this distance.  So even if the synoptic system takes a less ideal track farther south, it shouldn't be a total loss.  And if it does track farther north and combined with lake enhancement/effect, you can imagine what might happen.

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6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

One of those long range forecasting websites that think things like the LRC and the BSR are great forecasting tools...

 

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I haven't looked into them, but I think they're a couple of wx cowboys that post this stuff on social media and offer private meteorology services.

Yeah that tells me all I need to know :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For Chicago area, the lake enhancement signal looks very good at this distance.  So even if the synoptic system takes a less ideal track farther south, it shouldn't be a total loss.  And if it does track farther north and combined with lake enhancement/effect, you can imagine what might happen.

what are the inversion heights for this event and the possible Tuesday LE event (gfs event)? delta T should be huge

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

The Euro kind of epitomizes what I think could happen with respect to a miss or low end hit locally. The baroclinic zone remains further south and the low rides it east along the river.

Like all the models, the euro will continue to waffle. I did not like how suppressed it was, we get grazed by probably 1-2 inches of snow. Outside of that the 12Z trends were not bad at all, in fact were sniffing rain with the Canadian. I wonder what the northern and Southern extent of the possibilities are with this one?  

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10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

what are the inversion heights for this event and the possible Tuesday LE event (gfs event)? delta T should be huge

I haven't even looked at Tuesday.  For the weekend, inversion heights on the GFS aren't outstanding... like 6000 feet, but delta T eventually gets over 20C with a long fetch down the lake.  The lake setup by itself would be capable of producing several inches.

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I hope whatever happens EVERYONE in the sub has a snowcover before arctic armagaeddon.  Nothing worse than going into something like that with bare ground.   For us folks further south who just got the snow, that could happen if we get wiped out with rain for the weekend storm, followed by the flash freeze.    puke  

Maybe we can luck out and get some decent frontal passage snow to ensure everyone gets covered up, even those who miss out on the storm.

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1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I hope not. Ha. Would love to cash in on back to back significant winter storms. It's been a long time. Getting almost a foot yesterday has me thirsty for more :snowing:

Peoria is well north of I-70 and I might have said Liquid/Frozen line vs. SLP to be more precise with my words. At that, you'd be golden. Hope you get the rare back-to-back storms.

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45 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Peoria is well north of I-70 and I might have said Liquid/Frozen line vs. SLP to be more precise with my words. At that, you'd be golden. Hope you get the rare back-to-back storms.

I think areas from I70 north definitely have a good shot with this. Possibly I72 north depending on how much warm air this pulls up ahead of this. I already see snow maps and predictions making their rounds. Going to being a long week. Lol. And I agree with buckeye, would love to see a deep snowpack before one of these arctic dumps. Let's get that -32 on FV3 to verify ;) ha

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Like all the models, the euro will continue to waffle. I did not like how suppressed it was, we get grazed by probably 1-2 inches of snow. Outside of that the 12Z trends were not bad at all, in fact were sniffing rain with the Canadian. I wonder what the northern and Southern extent of the possibilities are with this one?  

WPC likes you for a reasonable shot at 3" which is not bad from this range

 

Screenshot_2019-01-13 WPC Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook.png

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