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ChescoPaWxman

Jan 12-13 Snow Event Obs and discussion

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1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

no - step back from 12z incoming

The entire precip structure is wonky. Big difference is the low is further n than 12z

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8 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Don't think it will make much difference in NE extent of snowfall - those S and E of mason dixon line will do well

12k nam hits rt 1 south decent.

warning snows Wilmington south

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

This is the NAM but yeah north trend and the ultimate gradient from hell. Check out Atlantic County :o

EE rule

 

 

18znam.png

EE both 1-3" up here still fits my original call. However higher qpf nudging into S PA now. S NJ nice hit on all guidance now. And that was more than a tick on the NAM that was a 75 mile move N and just west of 12z irt surface lp. That is rather large jump 

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I wouldn't be looking at the over running. Watch the trends in the actual coastal. That is what is trending north. The NE confluence continues to relax. Rather significant changes seen on the NAM. I love seeing some PVA getting into SE PA.

nam3km_z500_vort_neus_fh26_trend.thumb.gif.a87898a24ec10de06b0d20f66c822462.gif

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Mt. Holly threw up a WWA a layer of counties north (including Philly proper) -

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
317 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-131100-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.190113T0000Z-190114T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-
Including the cities of Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill,
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Long Beach Island,
Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, and Kennett Square
317 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

 

 

nws-mtholly-snowmap-01122019-322pm.png

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21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Has the RAP ever pulled a coup? Now is the time. I'm down for 15" with a forecast of 1" lol

It did well with January 2016 if that means anything in the current situation.

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11 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Getting some very light snow here occasionally, pixie dust flakes. Current temp. 30F, DP 15.

That's a good sign...limited virga.

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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

That's a good sign...limited virga.

I was blowing part of the lawn off when the first area of green on the radar moved through, so it's possible that was virga. The air is still pretty dry, but yeah nice to see some tiny flakes!

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Actual light snow now, can see a thin dusting on flat surfaces. Dewpoint came up to 19, so that's encouraging. Currently 29F.

eta: Looks like more moderate snow to the west heading this way in about 20 minutes....

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