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ChescoPaWxman

Jan 12-13 Snow Event Obs and discussion

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM sizable shift N with coastal low. Not really throwing precip back past del river tho

At least it's doing something positive and not S....

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I think I would have at least gone at inch where the <1" line especially with the bust potential. Luckily the timing won't have an impact like November s storm did but the results could very well be similar. Like Ralph I like 1-3" for us more in SNJ. I think 2" in AC is very low.

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think I would have at least gone at inch where the <1" line especially with the bust potential. Luckily the timing won't have an impact like November s storm did but the results could very well be similar. Like Ralph I like 1-3" for us more in SNJ. I think 2" in AC is very low.

Could be completely wrong but everything looks low (non weenie) as far as accumulation especially AC...

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS catching up....N with coastal. Assuming 18z continues such relatively large shifts some forecasts will be in serious jeopardy.

Don't get ahead of yourself..all we need is one swift kick in the ass to the S and we're back to square one. But I must say I'm encouraged so far today...

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13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Don't get ahead of yourself..all we need is one swift kick in the ass to the S and we're back to square one. But I must say I'm encouraged so far today...

I'm sure Dr No will set us straight.

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

People are still reading what Ji writes? :P

Slightly updated Mt. Holly snow map -

 

nws-mtholly-snowmap-01202019-540am.png

I guess easier to up totals if needed than lower them. Also might account for mixing issues along coastal counties. Just speculating. I’d go a title higher tho. 

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The latest Wxsim run with 12z (NAM/GFS) data of course has bumped up totals thanks to the bogus NAM run - now has 1.5" of snow by 7am tomorrow with snow increasing in intensity later tomorrow PM with 3.0" by 4pm - 5.0" at 9pm and ending up with 6.8" of snow by 1am Monday morning. This will correct with the 18z runs

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DR NO has beefed up qpf a bit! 

.90" for Cape May(WOW) .50" AC and .10" through the center of the forum 

Looks like a coastal special...w/maybe a side of sleet.

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Coastal backlash hit into SE NJ big change over previous runs Sunday night even into Monday morning.

 

Yea tough call for Mt Holly Mets. Can’t say I envy them right now. At least there’s not a lot of people around this area since the New Years holiday is long past. Wonder if this lingers into Monday early morning and impacts schools. 

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1 minute ago, Redmorninglight said:

Yea tough call for Mt Holly Mets. Can’t say I envy them right now. At least there’s not a lot of people around this area since the New Years holiday is long past. Wonder if this lingers into Monday early morning and impacts schools. 

ECM ends the snow a few hours before daybreak your in a good spot

 

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12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Looks like the Euro has 1"-2" for me. I'll gladly take since my expectations have been set at virga.

I'm not thrilled w/my DP at 11F...may get virga.

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1 minute ago, penndotguy said:

nor am I, Im sitting at 9 

I'll be somewhat happy w/20F+ as it approaches but single digits/low teens kinda suck...we don't have much moisture to work with.

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