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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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Solid 5" on deck rails now, picked up 3.5" in 9 hours overnight.  30.0F and very light snow with medium and small flakes.  Radar still filling in to sw so more to come.  NWS upped WSW snow totals from 4-8 to 5-9 with .1" ice.

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30 minutes ago, SpringfieldSkins said:

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Burke VA - 8:55 am.  Eyeballing, looks like 4-5 inches.

Just measured the deck, 4 inches.

Haven’t measured since a little after 7 am, but I had 5.75” as of then and have definitely gotten up to 6” total since.

I’m in Burke, by the way.

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Models often overdo the "second phase" of these events. and the HRRR/RAP at range are really suspect. Based on radar, things are winding down, could be some bursts here and there, sure.

Great event. So often things are boom or bust around here. Always nice to get a "standard" 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area. Like your grandpa used to frequently enjoy from DEC 1 to MAR 1 before our climate was apparently screwed up. LOL

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12z 3k NAM agrees well with latest HRRRRR runs.  Precip fills back in quickly in the next few hours, heaviest precipitation near sunset.  Focus S and E of DC.  

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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

the upper level energy that originally looked like it would become a pancake is still spinning its way towards our area.  still have that piece to move through, which should add enough lift to allow some backbuilding of the precip.  just how far north and west of 95 it occurs is a wildcard.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Only thing stopping me is figuring out if I’m going to use the hose-to-coil chiller to cool the wort. 

Try snow?

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3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Haven’t measured since a little after 7 am, but I had 5.75” as of then and have definitely gotten up to 6” total since.

I’m in Burke, by the way.

My deck is below some pine trees, so that total is probably not accurate.  I'll measure the front yard when I go to shovel in a bit.

BTW, any good sledding hills for kids in the Burke Centre area?  Lake Barton or Burke Centre Library?  This is our first decent snow since we moved from Springfield to Burke and want to find something within walking distance.

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Just now, mattie g said:

Thermal mass of snow is really low. When you’ve got 6 gallons or so of boiling liquid to cool, the snow doesn’t stand a chance.

Sounds like quitters talk to me

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Models often overdo the "second phase" of these events. and the HRRR/RAP at range are really suspect. Based on radar, things are winding down, could be some bursts here and there, sure.

Great event. So often things are boom or bust around here. Always nice to get a "standard" 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area. Like your grandpa used to frequently enjoy from DEC 1 to MAR 1 before our climate was apparently screwed up. LOL

Depends on where youre at. People always get nervous during this time. It will and currently is back building. Fun starts back up in next 30-45 mins for Arlington and I bet we pull 2” more. You gotta understand the ull has to transfer and consolidate the energy again. Plenty of left over water vapor to our northwest that will get pulled tighter as the ull spins up. And you see the radar fill back in pretty soon

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Added half and inch, 3.5”. Respectable.

I wrote on a piece of paper “2.1”, which was my guess last night for the total. I’m glad I was wrong.

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6” measured in burke.  We will see if we can add anything to it today, but even if we dont this was an awesome event love it!!  Hopefully this is just the beginning of a noce 6 week period!

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9:40am -- went out out 9am to do Shoveling Round #1.  Good timing as a lull moved in near end of shoveling.  At 9am, measured about 5.0"-5.25" .... and then probably a decent 0.5" more while shoveling for 1/2 hr before the lull, so approaching 5.5"-6.0"  OTG before any compacting during lull.

Current temp is at the low for the day at 26.5° after being about 27-28 at midnite.  Steady, very lite snow continuing.

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4.5” so far - really crossing fingers for another 1/2 inch to get to a verified storm warning...

...i will probably mentally call it verified even if we don’t.

great event to hopefully get things going.

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6" on the dot in upper NW. Very pretty.

EDIT: Some light stuff starting up again. 

Actually 6" seems a little high, given the other reports around me. Went back out and took a few more measurements, and 5.75" seems more accurate. 

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7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Radar starting to fill back in over DC metro....

Indeed.  Right on cue like you mentioned earlier 

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7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Radar starting to fill back in over DC metro....

Yep, snowing nicely again. And looks like more coming from the south.

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