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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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Just wanted to pop in and say good luck to everyone in this subforum. You all have been very welcoming to us Northerners and I am genuinely excited to see y'all cash-in. Hope it exceeds expectations! 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 has been really steady as locked in the short range. Much less jumpy than its older brother

Yep. We’ll see after all is said and done but I’ve liked it’s performace in the last few days from a consistency standpoint. 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I'm a little north of you and my bar is set at 3. Up here we just haven't gotten the bump up that the dc folks have gotten. 

yep...not quite the excitement up this far but I think our fail scenario (in my mind) of 1-3" is becoming less likely.  

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

4-6 is reasonable for Baltimore unless the Euro craps the bed.

Ha...gonna be interesting to watch! See I've had a little petty peeve the last couple years...Wanna see 5 inches again so Baltimore can have our first verified WSW (last year fell just short by .2 inches at BWI, lolL

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@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west?  That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements.  The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding.  Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!  :arrowhead:

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west?  That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements.  The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding.  Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!  :arrowhead:

Yea, you're fringed on models. Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder though 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z HRDPS .75" QPF at DCA lol

EZF over an inch... BWI around 0.4 or so

It was a model run I was waiting for and it certainly didn't disappoint. I'm going to have to up my forecast totals in most areas, but it'll be a conservative upgrade. I'm going to wait until the 12z Euro before I do anything. 

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One thing i want to at least point out is the big totals on the mesos or icon require upper level energy to perform as it moves through. I've seen many short term disappointments with that not materializing in time to match up with the progs. Not saying i think that's going to happen but it's something nobody should overlook.

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Nothing like having to work in a windowless room on a Saturday. I’m fully expecting flakes to be flying by 4 pm and it’s a winter wonderland outside.

That said, how does the red line (outdoor portions) fare during snow events?

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10 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

 

6E776379-DA06-4CF5-BF8A-E8F1AD2B81F7.jpeg

Yes, I thought originally he meant up to the border based on his all caps update - he posted all caps on old news...nothing new there for those of us north of BWI where it still feels fringed or outside of best stuff unless the Germans and NAM are right.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Yes, I thought originally he meant up to the border based on his all caps update - he posted all caps on old news...

He used to be sharper, must just be tired. 

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15z HRRR has some more intense banding signatures showing up at the end of the run at 18hrs in SW VA. I’m sure those will begin to form and pivot on up the forum. 

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3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Lived in Montclair for 17 years. Nothing prettier than a drive down Waterway during heavy snow. Unfortunately through the 90s and early 2000s all of the bradford pears they had in the median broke due to heavy snow or strong winds. They have been replaced with other more hearty trees but for time it was really unique. 

Ha. I remember that. I lived there as a kid in the 80’s. The golf course provided for some epic sled runs. 

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