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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I'm a little north of you and my bar is set at 3. Up here we just haven't gotten the bump up that the dc folks have gotten. 

yep...not quite the excitement up this far but I think our fail scenario (in my mind) of 1-3" is becoming less likely.  

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@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west?  That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements.  The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding.  Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!  :arrowhead:

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west?  That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements.  The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding.  Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!  :arrowhead:

Yea, you're fringed on models. Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder though 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z HRDPS .75" QPF at DCA lol

EZF over an inch... BWI around 0.4 or so

It was a model run I was waiting for and it certainly didn't disappoint. I'm going to have to up my forecast totals in most areas, but it'll be a conservative upgrade. I'm going to wait until the 12z Euro before I do anything. 

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One thing i want to at least point out is the big totals on the mesos or icon require upper level energy to perform as it moves through. I've seen many short term disappointments with that not materializing in time to match up with the progs. Not saying i think that's going to happen but it's something nobody should overlook.

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3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Lived in Montclair for 17 years. Nothing prettier than a drive down Waterway during heavy snow. Unfortunately through the 90s and early 2000s all of the bradford pears they had in the median broke due to heavy snow or strong winds. They have been replaced with other more hearty trees but for time it was really unique. 

Ha. I remember that. I lived there as a kid in the 80’s. The golf course provided for some epic sled runs. 

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