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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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Big hit incoming on the GFS

 

0c 850s Approaching Fredericksburg hour 18. 
850s flooding moist air north

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Friend in Orange seeing a few flakes now

Radar off to my southwest looks tasty. Will let you guys know how that performs. Virga will only be so long with returns showing up like that entering western VA. I’m thinking SE flow will def help some down this way with lift and moisture transport. Good luck up that way!

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Just now, DCAlexandria said:

looks better and looks similar? OK

Better than last GFS run and similar to NAM is what he means. Not sure I agree to that extent, but gfs has improved again it seems. 

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12 GFS seems less strung out than 06z by a little. Meanwhile there are some good radar returns in SWVA moving NE.

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AT 30 area getting impacts from coastal! First time the GFS has shown it

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think? :lol:

Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish

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At this point the NAM is for sure dead on with where these models are headed. its so obvious aloft and at the surface

gfs.gif

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish

Where’s the Clarksburg folk that always get a good band and stay 2 degrees colder than you down there?

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Just now, Yeoman said:

not much in the way of coastal enhancement on the GFS

It's a little more than the previous run, but nothing eye popping by any means. The jet structure was a little better from hr 18 moving forward, but nothing that would scream a NAM like outcome. Still not bad. GFS isn't the model I would be following right now. Euro is probably the only global I would give credence to. ICON is hug worthy, but it's the ICON so..... lol

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Looks like a little more action overnight Sunday which is an improvement too, not a blockbuster but another positive run. 

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DC is squarely in the 0.5'' QPF, unlike 06z. Precip across all of the area is an improvement from both 00z and 06z, respectively.

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11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The changes we are seeing really up the ante for a Rockville to Columbia deathband don't you think? :lol:

F-ck yes they are!

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Main takeaway for me is it agrees with the placement of the CCB band Sunday afternoon/night with the NAM/ICON, just not as wet as the others. IMO a very good run. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

and of course we knew it wasn't going to be 19"...still looking like a good run tho

Gfs should have this one nailed by 6z tomorrow

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Minus the 12k NAM (Not Happening!), guidance is in pretty darn good agreement.

Can't not like the look. It's certainly looking to be a nice storm for many. Enjoy a good stout for me!

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