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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

DCA - 10.3"

BWI - 6.6"

IAD - 10.6"

probably final

 

 

Haha that can't be final for BWI. I swear for all the complaining about DCA's reporting, BWI's is equally as comical. I live pretty close to the airport and they are always low on totals.

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I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here.  Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one.

Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.

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13.2" was the total for me in Clarksburg.  @ka60 just up the road may have had a bit more as he is usually a tic or two higher than me (Clarksburg ranges from 550' to 810' ASL).  7.2" from the WAA+coastal part of the storm and 6.0" from the ULL.

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11.5 inches at like 9:30pm last night, apparently it kept snowing til like 1 am so I’m calling a foot in Takoma Park. 

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11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Distribution of Snowfall (January 12-14, 2019):

Distributionof-Snow0112-132019.jpg

Source: National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

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Final total: 8.0". This is the 2nd biggest storm since I've moved here (HECS 2016, when 15.5" fell, is #1).

Snowboard measurements listed below:

2.3" (12am, 1/13)

3.6" (8:15am, 1/13)

0.2" (2:15pm, 1/13)

1.7" (11pm, 1/13)

0.2" (7am, 1/14)

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10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell. 

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53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here.  Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one.

Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.

Yeah, that was rough watching that unfold.  Although, it seems to be a more common occurance in the midshore area with snowstorms.

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It snowed a little bit more after I went to bed and got another tenth or so. 

 

Final call:8.7”

DCA beat me. Jesus that’s embarrassing 

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7 minutes ago, H2O said:

It snowed a little bit more after I went to bed and got another tenth or so. 

 

Final call:8.7”

DCA beat me. Jesus that’s embarrassing 

DCA beat me too.

9.8” on 1.01” precip.  Almost perfectly a 10:1 ratio on the storm

However, and I don’t know if this held everywhere, but ratios were terrible yesterday.  8:1 here.  I’m guessing it was the non-accumulating snow from 7am to 2pm that did it.

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11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA beat me too.

9.8” on 1.01” precip.  Almost perfectly a 10:1 ratio on the storm

However, and I don’t know if this held everywhere, but ratios were terrible yesterday.  8:1 here.  I’m guessing it was the non-accumulating snow from 7am to 2pm that did it.

That period of light stuff ranged from snizzle to zr to sleet for me at times. It only went all snow again once the consistent banding set up

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

That period of light stuff ranged from snizzle to zr to sleet for me at times. It only went all snow again once the consistent banding set up

I didn’t really notice any non-snow forms here, but there were a lot of needle snowflakes which are just awful for accumulation.

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I didn’t really notice any non-snow forms here, but there were a lot of needle snowflakes which are just awful for accumulation.

Same in annapolis never wet just needle’e what’s it looking like for Thursday into Friday I think we get some frozen before we change to light rain. Your thoughts ?


.

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36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Final total: 8.0". This is the 2nd biggest storm since I've moved here (HECS 2016, when 15.5" fell, is #1).

Snowboard measurements listed below:

2.3" (12am, 1/13)

3.6" (8:15am, 1/13)

0.2" (2:15pm, 1/13)

1.7" (11pm, 1/13)

0.2" (7am, 1/14)

Where did you move from?

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Congrats everyone who got clobbered up that way! I was consistently modeled around 6” and got about 1.5 with crust on top due to sleet primarily falling. On to the next one.

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45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

Frustration reigns when there are sharp cutoffs. Hell...I was annoyed watching the evening band set up 20-30 miles north of me even though it had already dropped good amounts as it came through here and left me with close to double digits.

February 10, 2010 dropped 8-9” here in Burke. Had one really intense band in mid-morning, and it snowed for quite a few hours, but definitely missed out on bigger totals in my neck of the woods.

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell. 

We had a 20 minute part 2 around 4pm. And that burst probably added .25" 

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15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I didn’t really notice any non-snow forms here, but there were a lot of needle snowflakes which are just awful for accumulation.

I had dendrites on Saturday evening and then Sunday evening.  Not sure overnight Saturday into Sunday.  But during daytime Sunday, it was mostly all needles and snowTV.  

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I love waking up the day after a snow storm and seeing almost all the snow still on the trees and ground. January storms are the best. 

No plows on our street to wreck it yet, either! 

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Storm total of 8.5", 6.5" on the ground. Liquid equivalent of 1.01" 2 day total. Sleet and freezing rain fell from approximately 1030am until 5pm. 2.5" after we switched back over. The heavy bands of snow from the upper low never set up over my location. Nice storm for most in the region.

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This for me is my 3rd favorite storm since moving to this area in 2009. 

1. Feb 5-6, 2010

2. Jan 20-21, 2016

3. This

The reason I put this ahead of Feb 9-10 is because this one was a big reverse bust and broke a big streak of no good storms.  Even halfway through the storm we weren’t sure if it was over.  Last night around 7:45 walking the dog was one of my favorite jebwalks ever. 

**disclaimer, I was out of town for Dec 2009

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