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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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19 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. 

@Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. 

Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

Hey @stormtracker : MountainGeek here says that you mentioned something about runnin in the streets nekkid if this storm verified?

Well, IT VERIFIED.

We are waiting for video.

Carry on.

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On 1/12/2019 at 9:55 AM, stormtracker said:

I'd go nude down Connecticut Ave and send you the pics if the Nam verifies

31 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hey @stormtracker : MountainGeek here says that you mentioned something about runnin in the streets nekkid if this storm verified?

Well, IT VERIFIED.

We are waiting for video.

Carry on.

BUMP!

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Thanks Don S and how have you been?
Heres a question for anybody
Its calm winds most  of the event and then around 3pm winds gusted over 20 for about 10 minutes, lots of snow blobs came  out of trees, and then it stopped . No change in immediate weather and no such windyness since?
i
 

I mention that same thing to my wife it was odd I’m in annapolis


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I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here.  Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one.

Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.

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11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Distribution of Snowfall (January 12-14, 2019):

Distributionof-Snow0112-132019.jpg

Source: National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

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10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell. 

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53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here.  Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one.

Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.

Yeah, that was rough watching that unfold.  Although, it seems to be a more common occurance in the midshore area with snowstorms.

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7 minutes ago, H2O said:

It snowed a little bit more after I went to bed and got another tenth or so. 

 

Final call:8.7”

DCA beat me. Jesus that’s embarrassing 

DCA beat me too.

9.8” on 1.01” precip.  Almost perfectly a 10:1 ratio on the storm

However, and I don’t know if this held everywhere, but ratios were terrible yesterday.  8:1 here.  I’m guessing it was the non-accumulating snow from 7am to 2pm that did it.

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11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA beat me too.

9.8” on 1.01” precip.  Almost perfectly a 10:1 ratio on the storm

However, and I don’t know if this held everywhere, but ratios were terrible yesterday.  8:1 here.  I’m guessing it was the non-accumulating snow from 7am to 2pm that did it.

That period of light stuff ranged from snizzle to zr to sleet for me at times. It only went all snow again once the consistent banding set up

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I didn’t really notice any non-snow forms here, but there were a lot of needle snowflakes which are just awful for accumulation.

Same in annapolis never wet just needle’e what’s it looking like for Thursday into Friday I think we get some frozen before we change to light rain. Your thoughts ?


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45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Thanks don. That captures the forum split on this storm perfectly. 

Frustrating for those of us in here in the blue. Although I think that frustration was generally handled well. 

Probably the biggest forum splitter in terms of totals over such a short distance in our forum where a majority of forum cashed and a small area didn’t since I think the second Feb 2010 blizzard left @mattie g area behind in terms of totals. Maybe @C.A.P.E.‘s area in Jan. 2016 in the dry slot too.

fun storm to track though and at least no one got shut out.

Frustration reigns when there are sharp cutoffs. Hell...I was annoyed watching the evening band set up 20-30 miles north of me even though it had already dropped good amounts as it came through here and left me with close to double digits.

February 10, 2010 dropped 8-9” here in Burke. Had one really intense band in mid-morning, and it snowed for quite a few hours, but definitely missed out on bigger totals in my neck of the woods.

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell. 

We had a 20 minute part 2 around 4pm. And that burst probably added .25" 

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