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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

just got back from a nice little hike through cabin john.  outstanding scenery.  5.5" was about the average.

round 2 or 3 or whatever it is at this point looks very appealing at the moment.  not sure how far north and west is goes, but can't underestimate a mild atlantic.  should be interesting to see how much moisture can get thrown back here.

Short-range models have really backed off on significant totals for the last round. Looks like 3 inches max, not that I wouldn't take that, but even the area of 3 is pretty small. Most areas along 95 see mayyybe an inch.

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Just returned from 3 hours outside with my 5yo - winter wonderland! He's exhausted - I remember that dead leg feeling climbing the sledding hills.

The neighborhood streets around here were well plowed and heavily salted, so they're fine. Death band incoming!

It's been snowing without a break since 3pm yesterday. Wonderful.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Short-range models have really backed off on significant totals for the last round. Looks like 3 inches max, not that I wouldn't take that, but even the area of 3 is pretty small. Most areas along 95 see mayyybe an inch.

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well.  3" would be pretty legit, though.  i would take that and call it a storm.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well.  3" would be pretty legit, though.  i would take that and call it a storm.

You are in a much better spot than me. Wouldn't take much of a model error combined with ratios for you to get another 3 or 4, especially looking at current radar.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

You are in a much better spot than me. Wouldn't take much of a model error combined with ratios for you to get another 3 or 4, especially looking at current radar.

well hopefully everyone can get in on the action.  it's pretty clear at this point there's re-enhancement going on of the precip, but rates n/w of 95 are tbd.  dendrites have reappeared imby, but it's not moderate which will probably be needed to get to those 2-3" totals.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

yea, i could be wishcasting a bit, but we've had a couple of rainers overperform as well.  3" would be pretty legit, though.  i would take that and call it a storm.

Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me 

yea, i've already called it a storm lol, though a couple more inches would make me call this a round.  very good storm for this area and it's only jan 13.

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