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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

New dry slot forming near Harrisonburg?

The thing about these "dry slots" is they aren't actually dry. Moisture is abundent but there are areas without a lifting mechanism. Lift is centered over our area basically until the moisture shuts off. I'm sure there will be some lulls at times but shortlived. Radar will continue to blossom over us for over 12 hours. Maybe 24 hours. Lol.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The thing about these "dry slots" is they aren't actually dry. Moisture is abundent but there are areas without a lifting mechanism. Lift is centered over our area basically until the moisture shuts off. I'm sure there will be some lulls at times but shortlived. Radar will continue to blossom over us for over 12 hours. Maybe 24 hours. Lol.

Yes! BTW I bet those ratios right now up in PSUland are about 12:1 - 14:1 right now.. temps there are in the mid 20s lol closer to upper 20s

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Wouldn’t discount the SREF entirely. It sucks ass... until a storm has arrived. That’s what it’s meant for. Only decent a few hours out, otherwise I wouldn’t go near it. HRRR/RAPP is the best combo If you insist on looking at the  models instead of the radar and current OBS haha 

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