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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This storm is a great reminder that it's very hard for models to nail intricate energy transfers. The waa piece is easy. The upper level and surface low progression is complicated. Sometimes it cuts the other way where models at short range lose (or move) the extra lift/precip idea. Appears this one is maxing out. Good luck indeed 

Absolutely and I was thinking that besides Jan 2010 I don’t remember us maxing out on potential on the front side of a major pattern flip especially from pac puke.  Snow Gods shining down on the Mid-Atlantic.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Absolutely and I was thinking that besides Jan 2010 I don’t remember us maxing out on potential on the front side of a major pattern flip especially from pac puke.  Snow Gods shining down on the Mid-Atlantic.

I think we have earned this. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

That looks a bit better to me, especially with the heaviest qpf tying to push up toward us from the beaches.

I wont be confident in tne location and amount of qpf with the trailing energy/enhancement until it's happening. That stuff is notorious for moving around or going up or down with qpf. Solid event before that's even an issue tho

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Always nice to see in the ZFP's

Fairfax-
Including the cities of Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville,
Chantilly, McLean, and Franconia
114 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

.THIS AFTERNOON...Snow. Snow accumulation around an inch. Highs
in the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow
near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Snow. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight.
Additional snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows in the upper
20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Snow, mainly in the morning. Snow may be heavy at times
in the morning. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches.
Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
snow near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow likely, mainly in the evening. Lows in the
mid 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds around
5 mph.
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52 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I have returned from grotto's pizza. Looks like 12z models look just a little better than 06z. Based on short-term models and trends, NWS Mt Holly could use a little constructive criticism for hedging a little low on snow totals, at least for the central (where I am) and the southern areas. Northern areas could use a little tweaking with the snow maps as well.

They aren't going to change anything until late this afternoon is my guess. Snow wont get going here till evening, they have headlines out and advisories in place, and the forecast accumulation ranges on the upper end already cover warning criteria (6 or 7 inches depending on location).

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