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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Just now, usedtobe said:

Glad I'm not at Sterling.  I'd hang with the 06Z Euro as it's the NAM but wow.  The last two runs have been mega.  We've been NAMed. 

 

I'm always very skeptical of nam qpf output.  Temps are usually pretty good but i've seen more than my share of qpf busts. That said, i'm hugging the 12k until it implodes

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jesus that’s 12-18. Holy cow. The north trend is real just not sure if 18”. Lol. 

LWX talked about the potential for this this morning: "

slightly negative EPV
and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI
banding is possible"
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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn. Even .75 is a crushing. Good 6z and 12z so far

i mean i would normally laugh at the NAM this is happening on Game day. You probably dont remember but it was the first model to pick up getting a foot the night of our Feb 2014 storm(the storm where we got 18 inches) and Cape cried..i mean we are literally in its wheel house lol and all 6z models increased qpf

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hr 42 death band over my yard lolz.

The deformation banding on that run was absurd. Even if 50% right on the total precip, that's a bonafide warning snowfall all the way to the border. I would not base any forecasts off that for the time being. But, if we see trends like that run continue, then maybe some triggers will be pulled. I'm with Wes, I would hate to be in Sterling's shoes right now. 

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