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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

You aren't wrong... I mean by the looks of current radar OBS, the precip shield is almost to northern Iowa.

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios.

dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.  

Haha.. yeah!  I love it!!!

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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive. 

Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its going to be a nice event here, but remember the vort is going to become increasingly stretched and gradually weaken is it moves east and encounters confluence. The local forecast offices seem to have a good handle on the high end potential with this. The coastal low is a bit of a wildcard but at this point it seems most of the area wont see much impact from that.

Not really going to need the coastal low to rack up good totals you can see the moisture transport pretty clear on radar and where the fetch runs into cold air its dumping snow. The vort has been continually looking better and better since 24 hours ago.  I see a over performer.

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One aspect of this storm that is still evolving is the Sunday eve/night timeframe.  Most models have a norlun type trough that develops as the coastal is moving ots....I'm not sure if it's actually a "norlun" that develops but it's def an extension of the trough.  Some develop this over the area...some models like it to the west of the area extending down into CVA...and some are weak or nothing.

The ICON shows how we can pad some numbers if this feature works out....

9SbGu0w.png

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Balmy 45 here... in Vegas. 

Wishing everyone the best for what is looking to be a modest snow storm region wide  

I feel so bad that you are missing this!  But I guess much of it is the chase. Your analysis leading up to this storm have been incredible!  Hope you are enjoying yourself and make it back before we get a big one! 

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Anyone feel this is a storm where NWS may be playing catch up the entire time? 

Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why.  

Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why.  

Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models

I know the NWS uses the SREF'S for trends very close to a event so this has to have them thinking for sure. IF 12z models nail WSW will fly for everyone im sure 

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57 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Lived in Montclair for 17 years. Nothing prettier than a drive down Waterway during heavy snow. Unfortunately through the 90s and early 2000s all of the bradford pears they had in the median broke due to heavy snow or strong winds. They have been replaced with other more hearty trees but for time it was really unique. 

I have lived in Montclair for 14 years. It is an awesome neighborhood.  Hoping that the overnight Namming is accurate for MBY. Currently 29/20 

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