Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looking at the upper levels and surface plots, this run was really close to getting good coastal action up into DC. One more little bump and...well...you know 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Looking at the upper levels and surface plots, this run was really close to getting good coastal action up into DC. One more little bump and...well...you know RIC will be all rain and DC will get dumped on 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Can someone post 6z euro QPF so we can compare? It might have been posted but I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: its gonna be 5"+ at DCA... not sure if it meets the criteria of "x" inches in "y" amount of time. You mean 5"+ for everything that borders DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 hours ago, mappy said: 06z euro, precip @Bob Chill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro showing a dual jet structure. Interesting if it’s correct. WAA thump and maybe just maybe a bit more from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Wowza now that’s a way different look in the upper levels. Look at the Jet structure! so that got your attention? lol Perhaps there is still more variance left to this than we were thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Do you guys believe in the idea that the final product will be a tad north of what the guidance is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, mappy said: @Bob Chill Perfect. A little bump from 6z. Great short term trends here. This panel shows how close 95 and close burbs are from coastal action. Much better than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Can someone post 6z euro QPF so we can compare? It might have been posted but I missed it. 12z went up by .1 generaly. Like by .4 compared to the I'll fated 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can someone post 6z euro QPF so we can compare? It might have been posted but I missed it. 12z went up by .1 generaly. Like by .4 compared to the I'll fated 18z run This storm has a slim chance at even making you happy. I really liked the 12z suite. Much of the snowfall is uncomplicated. Complicated stuff could boost things but at the very least a very good (and cold) event is on tap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Do you guys believe in the idea that the final product will be a tad north of what the guidance is showing? Yes, more transfer to the coastal. They always trend this way. although if you look at radar right now it's probably not enough to pull off a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: so that got your attention? lol Perhaps there is still more variance left to this than we were thinking. Everything looked awful for days. Would you have forecasted 4-8” given that elongated sheared mess that was simulated? Interesting developments, let’s see if it continues. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 For those who like satellite animations with storms as they approach. This is one of the best: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This storm has a slim chance at even making you happy. I really liked the 12z suite. Much of the snowfall is uncomplicated. Complicated stuff could boost things but at the very least a very good (and cold) event is on tap. I love the event. I hated people saying they would love 1-2 after a crazy number of hours tracking the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's qpf. Make up your own ratios I like the shape of that blue blob. Looks like might be a favorable area for banding. Extend that structure and we are in business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This storm has a slim chance at even making you happy. I really liked the 12z suite. Much of the snowfall is uncomplicated. Complicated stuff could boost things but at the very least a very good (and cold) event is on tap. I love the event. I hated people saying they would love 1-2 after a crazy number of hours tracking the storm Some of the typical MA climo trends are breaking in our favor. One of the things that's helping is the same stronger confluence that cut totals in PA northward is working to maximize the waa piece here. There could be an W-E oriented band (or bands) set up during that. I'm like 100% sure one of them will be along the northern tier. DCA is in an unusually good spot though. Nice to see DC and NOVA near the qpf max on most guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Kuchera is sweet AF Oh wow even gets a 5 up to my yard...lol Yep, I've always felt that this would be 2-4 (like most of you said) with a higher probability of a boom scenario vs. a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @C.A.P.E. Euro likes your yard dude. Nice. Ha not bad. I was in a meeting so I just looked at it. Its a good run for the whole region. Good 'trends' today. Somebody mug Lucy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 One would think LWX has to put up an area-wide WWA soon... maybe after 18Z guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 New EURO actually has about 4-6" of snow depth in RIC. Seems like an increase to me. Maybe the mixing won't be as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: One would think LWX has to put up an area-wide WWA soon... maybe after 18Z guidance? Probably a lot of watches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Lucker from New Hampshire where Im close to 45" on the season. Good luck down there. Just looking at upcoming temps after the storm and whatever falls stays on the ground for you to enjoy for quite some time. 10-15F overnight lows in the Balt/DC area will make it feel like deep winter. Good luck and enjoy. (Although Southern New Englanders meltdown as yet another miss) 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: One would think LWX has to put up an area-wide WWA soon... maybe after 18Z guidance? They wont need 18z. Just looking at all the 12z data and collaborating with neighboring offices. Products will probably be out around 3pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This thing is doing its damnest to beat the March 2018 event and become the best event since Jan 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: This thing is doing its damnest to beat the March 2018 event and become the best event since Jan 16 Considering the temps compared to Mar 2018... even less precip will be a much better event beyond just totals. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Guess I'll have to hope for that rogue band to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Love seeing the Ukie and Euro swing the .5 line up over my area. All along I felt like this was going to be one of those region wide 3-6 type deals. I may end up busting low on that number. Maybe a 4-8 event instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the temps compared to Mar 2018... even less precip will be a much better event beyond just totals. Give me a few inches of powder over paste. Love cold smoke. My leaf blower is on standby. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Perfect. A little bump from 6z. Great short term trends here. This panel shows how close 95 and close burbs are from coastal action. Much better than 0z With the different look at H5, seems that the storm is still evolving with approx. 24 hours to kickoff, is that a correct assumption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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