WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Before or after the tea leaves? Those who can’t forecast chide those who can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Everyone should look at SW OH and the sig bump in qpf on the ukie. As this storm progresses, ops keep bumping up the qpf in the waa piece. It's continuing. Of course we have to deal with the lee side of the apps and such but there has been a universal trend in the midwest/oh valley to increase QPF as leads shorten. We're next at 18z and 0z tonight... hopefully... There is enough of an easterly surface wind component that the App shred effect shouldn't be too extreme. This won't be one of those times where the mountains totally eat up all the moisture when the moisture feed is weak sauce and there is a SW surface flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Trend is our friend ladies. RGEM/FV3 onto something? Other models seem to be moving toward them, not away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone disagree with CWG's timeline a little bit? seems like they have the onset a little too early (saurday afternoon) and ending too early (sunday morning) when some models have shown this going into 12z and 18z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, jackb979 said: Anyone disagree with CWG's timeline a little bit? seems like they have the onset a little too early (saurday afternoon) and ending too early (sunday morning) when some models have shown this going into 12z and 18z sunday Onset has always been late morning - early afternoon tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, jackb979 said: Anyone disagree with CWG's timeline a little bit? seems like they have the onset a little too early (saurday afternoon) and ending too early (sunday morning) when some models have shown this going into 12z and 18z sunday Their timing is okay, but their percentages for the boom/bust scenarios is somewhat befuddling. Having your "official forecast" book ended by two 20% boom/bust options means your only 60% confident in your forecast. That doesn't instill much confidence in their product. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, jackb979 said: Anyone disagree with CWG's timeline a little bit? seems like they have the onset a little too early (saurday afternoon) and ending too early (sunday morning) when some models have shown this going into 12z and 18z sunday Using a blend, the overall forecast is very good on all variables. They can dial it in as minor details become more clear. Their forecast is easy to understand for the general public. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 60% confidence correlates quite well with their "medium" stated confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 High confidence/low confidence-just make a forecast you believe in. Not radar hallucination really, just ability and desire to use it while it’s snowing rather than continuing to reference models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Mixing may not be that big a problem anywhere north or west of RIC, certainly on the edge there but when the coastal starts taking over, colder air over the Potomac region will slide south and I would envisage the mixing zone being closer to southeast VA as a result. Going with these amounts: Max for storm in axis of CHO-north of EZF to Easton MD, 6-9 inches 4 inch line parallel to that with northward jog around higher terrain, approx IAD-BWI. DCA therefore in a higher snowfall position but will they measure it? No, so amounts all 4.0" (DCA should be 5.5). 2 inch line just around PA-MD border. On the southern edge of snow zone, 4" from RIC to Ocean City MD, extending southwest from RIC towards n/c NC. LYH and ROA about 5" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM ensemble continues to hug the FV3. It's similar to last night's run, but a little drier. Last night someone mentioned the spread among the members. I can only plot these maps for 24-hour increments, so the below maps don't cover the entire storm. But they cover most of it. The first is the percent of members with at least 5 mm (about 0.2") qpf as snow. This one is for 15 mm (about 0.6"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro is stronger and further north at 24 hours as compared with yesterdays 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Bang! 13 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Deck Pic said: Bang! ?? Deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 I love when Matt is excited about the Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Bang! Coastal love trying hard... good run man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Coastal love trying hard... good run man. is it LWX is gonna need to change things worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @C.A.P.E. Euro likes your yard dude. Nice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: is it LWX is gonna need to change things worthy? its gonna be 5"+ at DCA... not sure if it meets the criteria of "x" inches in "y" amount of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Wowza now that’s a way different look in the upper levels. Look at the Jet structure! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Coastal love trying hard... good run man. ALEET ALEET Coastal in effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Here's qpf. Make up your own ratios 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Here's qpf. Make up your own ratios In lock step with the ukie. That's a good combo to have on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Faquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA. There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area. Definitely think LWX nudges the watch further north now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Kuchera is sweet AF 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Here's qpf. Make up your own ratios Yaaaaaasasasa. I’m going with 20:1. Legit? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: its gonna be 5"+ at DCA... not sure if it meets the criteria of "x" inches in "y" amount of time. Last I looked they had 4 inches as the expected snowfall for the national mall so this is in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 15:1 just cuz. Aint happening but fun to look at 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Kuchera is sweet AF Bumped North as we approach, Good Stuff.....a little less QPF down my way, but 5" is pretty nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's qpf. Make up your own ratios A little Quantico blue dot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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