MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 My general thought hasn't really wavered at all with the setup, but I will wait for the Euro this afternoon before putting out a first call and final call early tomorrow morning. In all honesty, I really like LWX snowfall graphic, but I would add a few adjustments in terms of orographic favored areas. There is definitely boom/bust potential with this one, but I think we're beginning to see a greater boom potential compared to a bust. This shortwave was able to generate a fair amount of precip out this way and greater than most guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I agree with Bob. Have family down there so I get reports...bad ones but still something. If there is any pingers they would be east of the fall line/95 is my guess but I don't think its an issue either until maybe Caroline County. 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EZF is almost certainly not going to mix. I wouldn't worry about that. It's possible but even if the mix line approaches you'll make up for it with bigger QPF. Thank you both for the info, hopefully we all cash in with a very nice storm area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes Here is the total QPF map through 48... it is still snowing for all amazing how the blue always just stops short of @leesburg 04 house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: amazing how the blue always just stops short of @leesburg 04 house And yet somehow Loudoun always ends up near the max totals for the region (with the exception of the more southern storms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Coastal looks a little further north on the UKMET, gonna be hard to tell until the precip maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 gonna be about rates and duration at this point I think qpf is just about figured out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 We'd all take the 12z FV3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: We'd all take the 12z FV3 Too bad it's the FV3...that would be an okay weekend event for everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z UKMET is better for many re QPF... will have comparison between 00z and 12z up in a min 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Too bad it's the FV3...that would be an okay weekend event for everyone. Meso's are juicing up and the Fv3 isn't that far fetched... If the euro ups the ante then 12z was very good. There's not a person in this sub wouldn't wouldn't be happy with this qpf distribution... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKMET is better for many re QPF... will have comparison between 00z and 12z up in a min 12z UKMET QPF through 72 (today's run) 00z UKMET QPF through 84 (last night's run) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: 12z UKMET QPF through 72 (today's run) 00z UKMET QPF through 84 (last night's run) thats a good 3-5 S of 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Everyone should look at SW OH and the sig bump in qpf on the ukie. As this storm progresses, ops keep bumping up the qpf in the waa piece. It's continuing. Of course we have to deal with the lee side of the apps and such but there has been a universal trend in the midwest/oh valley to increase QPF as leads shorten. We're next at 18z and 0z tonight... hopefully... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Everyone should look at SW OH and the sig bump in qpf on the ukie. As this storm progresses, ops keep bumping up the qpf in the waa piece. It's continuing. Of course we have to deal with the lee side of the apps and such but there has been a universal trend in the midwest/oh valley to increase QPF as leads shorten. We're next at 18z and 0z tonight... hopefully... This sounds eerily similar to a Tenman post telling us to look at the snow in KY and baro in Syracuse, NY to know if it will snow or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, H2O said: This sounds eerily similar to a Tenman post telling us to look at the snow in KY and baro in Syracuse, NY to know if it will snow or not Before or after the tea leaves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Good looking precip mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The latest FV3 is warning criteria even up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Good looking precip mass. On radar it looks like it’s really blossoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: The latest FV3 is warning criteria even up here. pretty close -- about .45" or so qpf for you. A little less for me. decent rates would put you over 5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: On radar it looks like it’s really blossoming I'm sooo looking forward to the radar hallucinations tonight and tomorrow morning... One of my favorite parts of tracking storms. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FYI: Fv3 precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm sooo looking forward to the radar hallucinations tonight and tomorrow morning... One of my favorite parts of tracking storms. It's going to be nice to have a solid wintry day on Saturday and a wakeup to a beautiful scene on Sunday. It has been awhile 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: It's going to be nice to have a solid wintry day on Saturday and a wakeup to a beautiful scene on Sunday. It has been awhile Cold storms are the best. They can transform the entire landscape in an hour. I'm already planning my illegal late night hike with my son and dog in the woods at the nature center tomorrow night. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Not looking good for us Richmond folks, especially when the 20-30 mile shift north happens in real time like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Meso's are juicing up and the Fv3 isn't that far fetched... If the euro ups the ante then 12z was very good. There's not a person in this sub wouldn't wouldn't be happy with this qpf distribution... That appears to be an acceptable QPF distribution with the maxima in the appropriate and expected location based on the latest meso output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Not looking good for us Richmond folks, especially when the 20-30 mile shift north happens in real time like always. The ice threat seems to be increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 CHO and RIC folks worrying about precip holes and mixed precip is always a good sign for up here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: That appears to be an acceptable QPF distribution with the maxima in the appropriate and expected location based on the latest meso output. I like our spot right now. We could end up with 6+ if things break our way and it looks like 2-4 is kind of low end for PWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like LWX just nudges POPs for Saturday night to 100% all the way to the Mason Dixon line. I believe it was only 80% or 90% last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 New CWG analysis with updated map (2-4 for DC metro) https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/11/snow-set-blanket-washington-region-this-weekend-forecast-amounts-storm-timeline/?utm_term=.1b80804b86c8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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