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WxUSAF

January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE

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i don't think a lot has changed since yesterday.  the same general idea on 12z applies...there's clues as to how this could boom and there's clues as to how this could bust.  we need the first part of this storm to verify and/or the coastal to be further north and not get punted ots so easily by that stout high funneling in from the GL.  we should know more by monday morning.

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

Yea I did see the contour shifts and I’m not too worried. Less than I was yesterday that’s for sure! But I’m pretty happy with my call of 2-4” I made two days ago. Has felt that way to me and all the guidance I’ve absorb over last 72hours lol hasn’t really changed that general premise. Chill is probably right, just model noise as we close in. Almost game time so feeling solid at this point  for putting a score on the board 

Let’s just hug the RGEM :scooter:

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Fauquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA.  There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area.

Was thinking the same thing, would imagine it would come after the 12z Euro.......

LOL, 12z CMC just dropped over 1" of QPF in EZF, a little over done I'd say

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These slight QPF shifts are kind of irrelevant.  Plus the models rarely get the secondary banding in the usual places. Death banding in the usual locations is likely.

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

What are we thinking about ratios?  11/12:1?

Kuchera and soundings show that potential. Every run changes where the best DGZ. I saw some 15:1 yesterday near DC. Haven't looked at soundings today. 10:1 minimum is a safe bet. Things look good for both our yards. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Faquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA.  There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area.

At least S. Faquier I would agree with the rest.  PWC has quite the spread with 8 at the southern tip to 4 in the north.  But that lollipop should throw them in the mix of a watch.  Certainly Stafford.  

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I'm really only interested in Euro QPF, and I suspect the storm will be juicier than euro depicts....Folks on the edge of the 0.25" contour will outperform model output

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Let’s just hug the RGEM :scooter:

I was just about to post that lol

ninja’d

I tell you what too... CMC has consistently pointed at higher totals (little ebb and flow) and better coastal enhancement. The 12z is even better than 0z lol. 

If it scores a coup on the gfs/euro I’ll build a mini shrine to it on my desk 

2C53FBF4-47E4-4F90-AFAC-3FBDE08FAA16.thumb.png.0b5e538d63dec66df792b9684db583ce.pngD098C487-5BB2-411F-93A5-1398C4AE3FAE.thumb.png.15115accfe23d8aac2aa6ac5355f9422.png

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Folks on the edge of the 0.25" contour will outperform model output

Replace "folks" with mappy/psu/highstakes/losetoa6 and your analysis is perfect. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Replace "folks" with mappy/psu/highstakes/losetoa6 and your analysis is perfect. 

I'm gonna put a jar out to collect and then melt the snow afterwards to see what my total is, really curious this storm to see how well (or don't) i do with ratios. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

I'm gonna put a jar out to collect and then melt the snow afterwards to see what my total is, really curious this storm to see how well (or don't) i do with ratios. 

I'm looking forward to your "Wow, I have 4.5".  I expected almost nothing.  This is a pleasant surprise!"

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One clue that helps lock in a decent event around here is the mix line has continuously bumped further north. The battlezone being so close is a good sign that we're going to do fine. Deep cold into NC usually breaks on the light side. Having the mix line move into the northern neck is one of the classic positions for not worrying about things drying out at the last minute. Someone just north of where that line sets up is probably in a boom spot. 

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We need sref analysis. Anyone?

image.thumb.png.e092424816174549a7ab790c0586d7e6.png

I thought I had unbookmarked this because of its consistent betrayals.

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm looking forward to your "Wow, I have 4.5".  I expected almost nothing.  This is a pleasant surprise!"

you and me both, friend. :) 

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While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. 

I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight.  What is the end time frame?  I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning.  Thought? 

Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One clue that helps lock in a decent event around here is the mix line has continuously bumped further north. The battlezone being so close is a good sign that we're going to do fine. Deep cold into NC usually breaks on the light side. Having the mix line move into the northern neck is one of the classic positions for not worrying about things drying out at the last minute. Someone just north of where that line sets up is probably in a boom spot. 

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. 

I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight.  What is the end time frame?  I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning.  Thought? 

Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. 

That can't be answered accurately at this time.  Anything would be a wag.  It depends how things go once we are at gametime. 

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

EZF is almost certainly not going to mix. I wouldn't worry about that. It's possible but even if the mix line approaches you'll make up for it with bigger QPF. 

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2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

I agree with Bob.  Have family down there so I get reports...bad ones but still something.  If there is any pingers they would be east of the fall line/95 is my guess but I don't think its an issue either until maybe Caroline County. 

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I feel like the Canadian models had one really good winter a few years back where it was consistently performing really well, especially the RGEM, and then everyone started giving it a lot more credence and it has failed rather miserably since then, often portraying colder temps and more snow than what actually falls.

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1 minute ago, GEOS5ftw said:

12z HRDPS is impressive - best stuff stays south of the area but even so, has 4-8 inches with more to come after the run ends.

Is the best stuff in the Richmond to EZF area?

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Is the best stuff in the Richmond to EZF area?

Yes

Here is the total QPF map through 48... it is still snowing for all

hrdps_apcpn_neus_48.png

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