Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: whoa...6z GGEM...wtf http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&type=PR&lang=en↦=na&map=qc&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest not sure what is happening with the 6z models....im sure dr no will put an end to the hijinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Disregard earlier post! needed to read through it all. Basically, a 2 - 4 inch for all and some folks will get some bands of 4 to 6 - Coastal is a no show for us.. Easy to see consensus. The stripe of heaviest north of Richmond up to about Fredericksburg and that is a solid 4 to 8 favoring 6" for the highest amounts - about my thinking all along. Richmond is a mixing challenge! Gonna see some spots get the 7 to 10, but they seem more isolated to me until you get to the higher elevations. Modest event. So much better than what things have been. Hoping for all positive trends today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: not sure what is happening with the 6z models....im sure dr no will put an end to the hijinx I'm guessing its just a matter of creating the range envelope. Euro 3" top end other models 6ish 3-6" is the forecast unless you are CWG then its dusting to 8" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like 25mm in DC..wow...if somehow true We're fringed though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I like 4 to 6 for everyone from southern md up to Harford county. I think there is a lot of upside and boom potential for this storm. Great temps.. solid pressure gradient.. great slug of moisture incoming. I think we get it all from waa and maybe Wes or someone south gets a quick 3 -5 on top of it from the coastal. This event is likely to surprise and pleaee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm guessing its just a matter of creating the range envelope. Euro 3" top end other models 6ish 3-6" is the forecast unless you are CWG then its dusting to 8" They need to cover their bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6z euro looks much better so far... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 much wetter run coming up compared to 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 euro looks like other models that went haywire at 6z...still snowing good at 2pm sunday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: euro looks like other models that went haywire at 6z...still snowing good at 2pm sunday oh? Could it be possible that we are closing strong for a change?? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: oh? Could it be possible that we are closing strong for a change?? its very close to going back to that long duration event. snow is still close at 7pm sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: its very close to going back to that long duration event. snow is still close at 7pm sunday Qpf? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like the 6z runs other then the GFS are adding the coastal into the mix big time. Models are figuring this out at the last second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 euro is about 25 miles south of giving us snow through 7pm sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm counting on a mini qpf max over northern Carroll . All joking aside I'm still thinking 3-5" for our area w/ ratios We're entering the magic final 36 hours close. Could get the typical bump north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro “much further north with the coastal” according to tombo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 .3 by 12z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 06z GFS, 06z NAM, 06z RGEM, and 06z EURO all look improved... sounds like others as well. Great news. Last night’s 00z EURO wasn’t bad either for the DC area. Hopefully as we get closer, models are picking up on additional moisture that’s available. A 2-4/3-6 event looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The HI-REZ NAM gives everyone 0.25 " to 0.50 " liquid equiv. in the front thump. Then...all of the remainder is on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like 25mm in DC..wow...if somehow true Verbatim that gives me closer to 15 inches of snow with 10-1 ratios down in Montclair. Um I’m hugging that S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I hope this is all a trend that ups the ante at noon - we will see watches expand (as we all know - call me mr. obvious) - I like seeing thing trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The HIREZNAM 700 mb shows a cutoff of da juice at 7 am Sunday. Believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, midatlanticweather said: I hope this is all a trend that ups the ante at noon - we will see watches expand (as we all know - call me mr. obvious) - I like seeing thing trend better. If the 12z suite looks like 6z I’m pretty sure that WSW will be going up for the DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: If the 12z suite looks like 6z I’m pretty sure that WSW will be going up for the DC metro Will bet $20 it is advisory only for DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 See you all for 12Z - One honest question - What happened to the Panasonic? Was it so worthless no one looks at it, or was it discontinued? I am being lazy because I am sure I could look that up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, winterymix said: The HIREZNAM 700 mb shows a cutoff of da juice at 7 am Sunday. Believe it. Thanks Deb. We heard you the other 15,000 times. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, winterymix said: Will bet $20 it is advisory only for DC. Does your $20 bill have a picture of Debbie Downer on the front? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 hours ago, cae said: The Ukie backed off, but the RGEM ensemble actually improved from its 12z run. The first map below is for the same time period I posted for the 12z run. If you compare the two, you'll see this one is a little better. The second map is out to 72 hours. It looks like the FV3, but shifted a bit north. Hi, where do you get these plots? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Verbatim that gives me closer to 15 inches of snow with 10-1 ratios down in Montclair. Um I’m hugging that S euro is like .4qpf close to .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Ji said: euro is like .4qpf close to .5 Whoa. For the whole area? That’s a big jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts