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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF
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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Icon is mostly waa snow so .2-.4 qpf through the area is pretty good. Similar to the 18z euro and identical in my yard

Eta: icon is better in my yard by .1 so i'm hugging that until something better comes along 

Yep.  Seems like we’ve settled on 2-4” for the area which is fantastic considering where we were a week ago.  Most wrote off the whole month of January and now we’re looking at snow this weekend with multiple threat windows to track afterwards.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because your using a different and significantly more conservative map than the others. Don't be obtuse. 

He'll never break character. Only shows up to drop wet blankets.

Looks like we're converging on .2-.4 qpf on average across guidance unless the nams are right. If the globals hold i'm tossing the nams.

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The confluence is pushing down harder in the NE 

Yes but the system is more consolidated. The confluence is not killing us here. The compressed flow from the system crashing the ridge in the west combined with the downstream blocking is what's killing the stj wave.  The whole trough is being squeezed and de amplifying.  If the confluence was the problem there wouldn't be light snow way up into PA from a weak waa wave. The confluence might even help enhance lift near us by increasing convergence on the northern fringes 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If ratios are below 10-1 then yes. Qpf is .2 - .4. Look at that panel before snowmaps

I'm skeptical of high ratios, even if we're cold, especially for those of us who end up with light rates and probably less snow growth. There was a similar event in mid-February 2015 (before the good one) in which the ratios underperformed due to the lack of snow growth.

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Yes but the system is more consolidated. The confluence is not killing us here. The compressed flow from the system crashing the ridge in the west combined with the downstream blocking is what's killing the stj wave.  The whole trough is being squeezed and de amplifying.  If the confluence was the problem there wouldn't be light snow way up into PA from a weak waa wave. The confluence might even help enhance lift near us by increasing convergence on the northern fringes 
Blocking is killing us this year so far
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