SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That map is not 1-3 it is 2-4 for basically everyone in the forum. And I am perfectly happy with that. True, and it’s the lowest any model is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 step forwards and 5 steps back. 18z was good to us but then just crushed it Good work, nice EURO images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm not mad at the 18z euro. 2-4" event entirely from the waa piece. I hope that part is spot on. Waa snows are the easiest. It rolls on radar and starts snowing after the column saturates. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Around what time does the snow start for the region on the Euro? Asking because I’m going be on the road Saturday and want to get back in time. Looks like GFS mostly starts overnight into Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Around what time does the snow start for the region on the Euro? Asking because I’m going be on the road Saturday and want to get back in time. Looks like GFS mostly starts overnight into Sunday? Hard to answer that. My experience here has been later start than advertised. I bet snow starts after dark and if Euro 18z is right finishes before sun rises on Sunday. Not sure the long duration event is still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 People can talk or prove me wrong but i swear to you the GGEM was the first to blast me with the 12/9/18 event down this way and the other models followed suit. Never say never. It was spot on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: People can talk or prove me wrong but i swear to you the GGEM was the first to blast me with the 12/9/18 event down this way and the other models followed suit. Never say never. It was spot on. We will all find out soon enough. 2 inches is the floor for my backyard. I think it will snow a bit. That’s all I am confident in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not mad at the 18z euro. 2-4" event entirely from the waa piece. I hope that part is spot on. Waa snows are the easiest. It rolls on radar and starts snowing after the column saturates. Yup. I think we can do well with the WAA piece with what all the 18z runs were showing. Hope it continues with the 90z runs as well... but once again, 2 to 4 overall is an excellent start to the pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not mad at the 18z euro. 2-4" event entirely from the waa piece. I hope that part is spot on. Waa snows are the easiest. It rolls on radar and starts snowing after the column saturates. If ground truth is 2” then that is a decent event. You’re not skeptical that .2” QPF is going to translate to 2” of accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Again...a couple to few inches of cold powder at the beginning of a huge pattern change. Can’t be angry at that. 52 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: So the pattern changes just that quickly? It's been overperforming rain events constantly, now we are in the mid-1960s? Because flux capacitors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 DT's 1st guess map. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: If ground truth is 2” then that is a decent event. You’re not skeptical that .2” QPF is going to translate to 2” of accumulation? Why wouldn't it? Ground will be cold enough... temps in the upper 20s... SRs around or lil better than 10:1... nighttime snowfall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Yup. I think we can do well with the WAA piece with what all the 18z runs were showing. Hope it continues with the 90z runs as well... but once again, 2 to 4 overall is an excellent start to the pattern change Yep, hoping at least 2-4" locks in with 0z runs. A disaster (imo) with this event is less than an inch. We seem locked in for precip but it's def within the realm to get less than an inch and that would suck. Apparently Ji's version of a disaster is less than 6". Or even less than 10" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Think DT is overdoing this a tad Agree... I'd subtract 2" from his overall map everywhere... as in 6" line becomes 4" and 4 to 8 is the highest on the map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Agree... I'd subtract 2" from his overall map everywhere... as in 6" line becomes 4" and 4 to 8 is the highest on the map Wait till he digests the 18z Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Well. Let’s hope this continues at 0z I guess my point was it came more in line with the Euro...almost a carbon copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 DT must like the Canadians for this one. Interesting map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: DT's 1st guess map. And with a 50 mile North trend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Check it out, pretty substantial digging differences in AZ and NM for 6 hrs into a run, 00z NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Check it out, pretty substantial digging differences in AZ and NM for 6 hrs into a run, 00z NAM. It’s 1mb stronger 1010 vs 1011 at 11hr...that’s all I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s 1mb stronger 1010 vs 1011 at 11hr...that’s all I see. But it's 2mb deeper by 19!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But it's 2mb deeper by 19!!!!!! And a small closed h5 appears in SE Colorado at 19 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 How does a look like that at hr31not shellack us. It looks like a nuclear explosion of snow. Still 1mb stronger than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It leaves the door open to trend stronger in the coming runs. Edit: It reminds me of Jan 2000 with that low off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It leaves the door open to trend stronger in the coming runs. Edit: It reminds me of Jan 2000 with that low off the NC coast. You might want to go back and look at jan 2000 charts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM developing a cluster of thunderstorms off the Carolina coast @ 48hrs into a low that no other model has until at least 12hrs later. Typical NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 32 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM developing a cluster of thunderstorms off the Carolina coast @ 48hrs into a low that no other model has until at least 12hrs later. Typical NAM. Something gotta give, there's all this potential energy heading into a not yet completed pattern change. Maybe the pattern change later doesn't happen. (That would be my guess.) That low in the Hudson Bay sucks out all the energy. If it truly is a -NAO/-AO pattern, it would have to do it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The NAM, woof. And I don't mean DT woofing. It snows for three hours LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: The NAM, woof. And I don't mean DT woofing. It snows for three hours LOL. Man we went from 30 hours of snow to 3 hours in like 2 days lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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