BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'd guesstimate that the euro is tucking better. Where's our subs?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nice run by the Euro. Slight improvement over 12z (not as good as 18z) for Nova/DC. 0.5” very close to DC to the SW. 0.25” just north of Balt ETA: we are locked into 3-5” for DC/NOVA. Let’s enjoy it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 A bit of a slower and tucked storm. Has light snow in DC surrounding areas well into Sunday night. Snow not as good as 18z, about same as 12z? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'd guesstimate that the euro is tucking better. Where's our subs?! That looks a lot closer to a storm that could gain some latitude off the coast but I’m not an expert. Shift that low a little closer to the coast and we might be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dereknel said: Ric? Showing ice? A little warmer this run with some rain pushing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Might as well post the Kuchera since it shows more snow. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Might as well post the Kuchera since it shows more snow. It’s better for my backyard hence my optimism with the run. Every man for themselves, heh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It’s better for my backyard hence my optimism with the run. Every man for themselves, heh. We always seem to get 1 set of runs with an overall "step back". Dec 9 2017 had it at the 0z runs as well. Seems to not effect much, but the fact that the Euro took a step back from 18z and still shows borderline WSW snows is pretty great. We seem to be locked in for a good one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: We always seem to get 1 set of runs with an overall "step back". Dec 9 2017 had it at the 0z runs as well. Seems to not effect much, but the fact that the Euro took a step back from 18z and still shows borderline WSW snows is pretty great. We seem to be locked in for a good one. Yep, we’re locked into a nice event...it’s better in my backyard from 12z which I liked seeing. As Bob says it’s let the chips fall time. Happy to start posting obs soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, snowdude said: A little warmer this run with some rain pushing north. Love how that dark blue stops at the city, lolol C'mon I know you can do it...reach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, snowdude said: A little warmer this run with some rain pushing north. It seems like all the guidance took a step backwards at 0z... maybe I am just being pessimistic.. but that's what is looks like to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6z nam looks better so far than 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 More tucked in....more rain in central va lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Pretty big change at 500 for small leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Pretty big change at 500 for small leads Yeah, NAM is more absurd than anything. Approaching 1.25 QPF near DCA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Okay ridiculous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We are sick SOBs. 3 am and doing NAM pbp... Models have consistently been showing a max strip like this somewhere just south of us. The NAM looks to now have moved that strip north closer to the VA/MD border and DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Yeah, NAM is more absurd than anything. Approaching 1.25 QPF near DCA lol Lol@Bob chill talked about having a cushion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, LeesburgWx said: We are sick SOBs. 3 am and doing NAM pbp... Models have consistently been showing a max strip like this somewhere just south of us. The NAM looks to now have moved that strip north closer to the VA/MD border and DC Glad more than 1 person isn't asleep at this time. I mean, it's nowcasting time, and we're drooling over the NAM just before gametime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We just got NAMd big time. Southern SW with a bit more amplitude and a the confluence is a bit weaker and lifts out faster. Spits out 6-12" around DC metro. Probably overdone but nice to see it improve heading into game time. (Not a bad time for the newborn to wake up to eat) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If only... absurd run. Of course it took until gametime to get NAMed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We are in the NAM wheelhouse. I push all chips in now. I have been waiting for the right time and this is it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6z NAM3k also improved significantly, really nice to see right before game time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 One of the all time ridiculous naming of all time 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If only... absurd run. Of course it took until gametime to get NAMed.. Better to get named on day of storm than at 60 hours 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Rgem increase too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Winter storm warning 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Winter storm warning Went from 3-5" to 3-6" interesting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area. Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty regarding the placement and location of any banding precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Mount Holly keeping a WWA for now, but mentioned a possible upgrade in the AFD for tonight. Also noticed they have a bit more of a 'wide range' than usual for accumulations in the text forecast, owing to the possible tight gradient and uncertainty with the coastal enhancement across this area. Calling for 2-6" here and 3-7" around Easton. Less NE. Seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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