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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF
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GFS is definitely headed towards a deform band idea like most other guidance at 48. 

Surface is sloppy still but once it focuses on the western side of the elongated low its showing it will reflect more precip west. Model correction in full effect 

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Any thoughts on the coastal forming too far off shore at this point? I only ask bc too many times over the years, we have a great set up like this but bc it’s not coming from the south—we sometimes put too much stock in accumulations based on the “transfer of energy.” I feel like it’s a rarity in these parts to have that lull and then the thump a few hours later from the coastal... no?

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2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Any thoughts on the coastal forming too far off shore at this point? I only ask bc too many times over the years, we have a great set up like this but bc it’s not coming from the south—we sometimes put too much stock in accumulations based on the “transfer of energy.” I feel like it’s a rarity in these parts to have that lull and then the thump a few hours later from the coastal... no?

It's always possible the transfer can throw a wrench but by the time the shortwave passes through it's pretty squashed. Much of the snow for many happens before the transfer. We probably won't clearly know how its going to work until this time tomorrow

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I always have liked to watch model trends and it rarely has let me down below 72 hours. I get the high is pushing a bit more on the GFS but its important to see what the model is doing at the surface vs 500mb. The GFS still is trying to enlongate the low and not have a nice clean transfer and that effects winds at the surface and aloft. The focus needs to be on the low closer to OBX vs the low out in the ocean. it has big time implications as to how and where a deformation band can set up. It is definitely catching up to the idea but its not there yet.

GFS.gif

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
I thought you would melt down about the GFS.  Very nice.  

Its always the east and south most model on all these kinds of storms...and often driest

it didn't really seem farther south and east this run.  it almost looked better, but for some reason qpf was a little lighter on the north side.  south side looked a little better, though.  not sure what to take from that run.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

So many models (GFS, FV3, NAM 12k, NAM 3k, CMC, RGEM, HRPDRPS, Icon) when all we really need to do is follow the Euro.  Let’s not overthink this.  

We do unless it shows something we don’t like.  We tend to endorse the best model output but know the worst output will likely verify. Can’t remember the last time the snowiest model was the one that won

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

HRDPS has backed down a little as well. Still. all of the models show a 2-4/3-6 event. Which is what most of us expected all along. Will someone hit 8? Yep. 

All models have waffled  back and forth but the consensus has pretty much been some where between 2 and 6 inches for last 4 or 5 days. If we end up in that range that's impressive in imho. 

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

We do unless it shows something we don’t like.  We tend to endorse the best model output but know the worst output will likely verify. Can’t remember the last time the snowiest model was the one that won

Exactly. Why the GFS shouldn't be ignored. 2-3" seems reasonable for DC.

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