SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm liking the 3km NAM Looks a little drier for us than 18z but still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm liking the 3km NAM 12k NAM looks better overall. eta: better meaning better than the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: 12k NAM looks better overall. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 NAM still looks okay but it certainly having issues with the surface low along the coast. Been very jumpy from run to run. Probably best to hedge away from using them in order to figure out that aspect of the forecast. As far as WAA snows look, still looks good for the entire area with nothing really changing at this point. Tight northern cutoff in the works, but somewhere near the cutoff there will likely be a convergence zone that develops and leads to some of the better snow ratios and prime dendritic growth. Happened with the Dec storm and areas like 40-50 miles south of DC/NoVa got hit good. We shall see. Heading to bed since I gotta be up and leaving in 7.5 hours. Have a great night! . 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Looks a little drier for us than 18z but still good. I'm thinking that the north trend is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3k is a disaster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: agree Don’t get me wrong...3k is nothing to sneeze at. 4-5”....sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12k NAM looks better overall. damn, i just looked through the storm..it's really good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Waking up to sunshine 7am Sunday in leesburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 3k is a disaster It gives you 0.4” QPF which would be 4-6” out there...tell me how that’s a disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 3k is a disaster 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12k NAM looks better overall. 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm liking the 3km NAM 14 minutes ago, Fozz said: 0z NAM has slashed totals north of DC. Not sure how much it's worth, but not really what I wanted to see. Maybe 18z was too wet. Nice pbp guys 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3k is always super dry. They ruined the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It gives you 0.4” QPF which would be 4-6” out there...tell me how that’s a disaster.Because it's the driest model...that's why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 0z nam snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, jackb979 said: 0z nam snowfall No issues with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Kuchera numbers for both DC and Baltimore went down on both 12k and 3k unless I'm completely missing something... Not saying it's bad just not understanding how it's anything but worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 We hate momentum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, caviman2201 said: Kuchera numbers for both DC and Baltimore went down on both 12k and 3k unless I'm completely missing something... Not saying it's bad just not understanding how it's anything but worse Its not as good as 18z. Not debatable. That said, I am not worried. 18z always seems unrealistically jacked for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Relax @Ji... the current radar looks different than what the NAM is showing for this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I think the nam3k is bs....its not realistic...maybe it's too hd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM still looks okay but it certainly having issues with the surface low along the coast. Been very jumpy from run to run. Probably best to hedge away from using them in order to figure out that aspect of the forecast. . Was just going to post something similar. This is a large system with a transfer. I really dont trust the nams at all with that scenario. Its not just now and then... the nams jump around do strange things every single storm. 6z will be something new and then 12z and so on. Euro, fv3, ukie, and gfs are pretty steady run over run. I'll stick with those and ignore the nams. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Waking up to sunshine 7am Sunday in leesburg You really need help. Losing your shit over the one model that has been absolutely pathetic so far for this event? It has flip flopped like a fish out of water for 2 days? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If the Euro backs down at 0z, I might begin to 'worry' a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: You really need help. Losing your shit over the one model that has been absolutely pathetic so far for this event? It has flip flopped like a fish out of water for 2 days? And the truth is it wouldn’t be sunny in Leesburg based on that. Cmon Ji. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: If the Euro backs down at 0z, I might begin to 'worry' a bit. Keep us posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: If the Euro backs down at 0z, I might begin to 'worry' a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if it backs down from 18z. Kinda expecting it. If it backs down from 12z we have reason to complain but if it's still 2-5" the forecast hasnt really changed in days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Keep us posted Sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wouldn't be surprised if it backs down from 18z. Kinda expecting it. If it backs down from 12z we have reason to complain but if it's still 2-5" the forecast hasnt really changed in days I mean anything can happen but let’s not let the NAM rain on our parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I can see a nice shift north on the 0z GFS and Euro only to go back to the 18z result at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 RGEM precip map has it snowing past hour 48 on its 00z run for the majority of us http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Change it to 00z and change date to 12 if it opens as being on 18z and date 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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