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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF
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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

18z Euro looks solid once again. I think it’s safe to say we are honing in on the potential here. Best chances for WSW right now probably NoVa, So MD, Northern Tidewater of Va, and Southern Eastern Shore of MD (Although that one may be a close call toward the shore).


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Don't forget the rockville to columbia death band. It's real and happens when qpf max is in nova.

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

18z Euro looks solid once again. I think it’s safe to say we are honing in on the potential here. Best chances for WSW right now probably NoVa, So MD, Northern Tidewater of Va, and Southern Eastern Shore of MD (Although that one may be a close call toward the shore).


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Not worried about mixing on the southern eastern shore?

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Getting close  to as @Bob Chill would say “chips fall” time and Euro keeps trending better and better, can’t realky ask for more. 

The area of coastal enhancement has boom potetial but also bust potential. We're very fortunate to get a nice dose of waa precip so enhancement is bonus snow instead of our only snow

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I'm curious about the strong confluence and whether it will create extra lift/frontogen somewhere along parrs or even in southern PA. Or rockville...


There will likely be a primary “deathband” that sets up someone in the areas you mentioned and goes to town. This is a perfect setup for it. A nice area of low level convergence is likely in the setup. The question is where. Not until gametime when that’ll be solved.


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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm curious about the strong confluence and whether it will create extra lift/frontogen somewhere along parrs or even in southern PA. Or rockville...

There's no doubt it will happen. And my area will get stuck in the subsidence between the central Maryland death band and the Fredericksburg juice

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm curious about the strong confluence and whether it will create extra lift/frontogen somewhere along parrs or even in southern PA. Or rockville...

It’ll make a straight line between Rockville and Ellicott City and sit in place for the storms durations. Of course. :)

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