Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM puts RIC back in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z RGEM is a beat down. Please let it be back to being a decent model. geez...its still snowing at 54 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Speechless. Can’t believe people were melting down over the NAM yesterday. Embarrassing for them. my meltdown was the 18z euro lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I wish the rgem was a better model lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 When is the last time we had a similar positive trend so close to game time? I've only been "tracking" since ~2012/13 but this to me is a remarkable 180 from yesterday/last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Hyphnx said: RGEM puts RIC back in play RGEM paints the whole sub forum with Warning level snow plus. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hyphnx said: RGEM puts RIC back in play I think you guys will do ok north of the city. Cold airmass and ideal position. East on 64 toward Wmbrg things will be dicey however. Just my take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look on the left hand column. This is a great sounding for high ratio snow. When the longest bars are in between the DGZ delineations it means great dendrite production. 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You want as much lift as possible concentrated within the DGZ as possible for as long as possible. Thanks to you both. I never noticed that feature on skews before, is it only included during winter, or am I just oblivious? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: my meltdown was the 18z euro lol We all have our moments. Some more than others. Reget that one but this recovery has been sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: I think you guys will do ok north of the city. Cold airmass and ideal position. East on 64 toward Wmbrg things will be dicey however. Just my take. I'm just south of the city. Expecting tons of ice/mixing in my backyard. Models are starting to come to an agreement that this could be another hit for RIC but DC seeing a good amount, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, TSG said: When is the last time we had a similar positive trend so close to game time? I've only been "tracking" since ~2012/13 but this to me is a remarkable 180 from yesterday/last night. We have seen this both be beneficial as well as painful.. it is not as uncommon as you would think! Even the December Storm had a shift north. It is always a possibility and many times if you are on the north fringe of the best precip, it ends up shifting in the last 24 hours.. especially these North to South gradient systems. But yes.. usually they kill chances and we are all left deflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hyphnx said: I'm just south of the city. Expecting tons of ice/mixing in my backyard. Models are starting to come to an agreement that this could be another hit for RIC but DC seeing a good amount, too If you’re south of RIC, I’d maybe consider the Southeast forum. Otherwise, our rooting interests are likely to not align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hyphnx said: I'm just south of the city. Expecting tons of ice/mixing in my backyard. Models are starting to come to an agreement that this could be another hit for RIC but DC seeing a good amount, too Yes we will be all snow. For that I am confident. Rare for most of us both up here and down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We have seen this both be beneficial as well as painful.. it is not as uncommon as you would think! Even the December Storm had a shift north. It is always a possibility and many times if you are on the north fringe of the best precip, it ends up shifting in the last 24 hours.. especially these North to South gradient systems. The final hours north/south trend I'm familiar with. I'm more talking about the sudden increase in QPF. Last night I was hoping DC would get 0.2-0.3... Now that seems like a slam dunk and probably closer to the bust scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: If you’re south of RIC, I’d maybe consider the Southeast forum. Otherwise, our rooting interests are likely to not align. We are talking 10 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 A nice 4-6 cold snow in January with no mixing across the area is nice. Seems so rare these days. Usually boom or bust in these parts. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Thanks to you both. I never noticed that feature on skews before, is it only included during winter, or am I just oblivious? It really comes into play during the winter because it aides in snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annapolismike Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: We have seen this both be beneficial as well as painful.. it is not as uncommon as you would think! Even the December Storm had a shift north. It is always a possibility and many times if you are on the north fringe of the best precip, it ends up shifting in the last 24 hours.. especially these North to South gradient systems. What appears to be happening is the storm is stronger and increasing the amount of precipitation across the area. To infer the storm is moving north is incorrect. If anything the northern extent of the precipitation shield has moved south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: If you’re south of RIC, I’d maybe consider the Southeast forum. Otherwise, our rooting interests are likely to not align. Agree with that. Nothing against those south of RIC but if you think about it you would be to that forum what psu, mappy, sparky, land the others way north are to this one. Not a bad place to be. Richmond is the Manchester of the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, TSG said: When is the last time we had a similar positive trend so close to game time? I've only been "tracking" since ~2012/13 but this to me is a remarkable 180 from yesterday/last night. This feels like the January 2010 storm to me. Very cold, high ratio snow. Trend north at the last minute put DC/NOVA in WSW snowfall. Came on the front end of the pattern change that brought significant blocking and two HECS to the region. This feels similar. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM/RGEM show warning snows for dc and all of central / southern MD. GFS members and Euro show advisory level for most with warning level south. Solid trend. Imagine 00z ticks just a hair more north.... OH dill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: This feels like the January 2010 storm to me. Very cold, high ratio snow. Trend north at the last minute put DC/NOVA in WSW snowfall. Came on the front end of the pattern change that brought significant blocking and two HECS to the region. This feels similar. I was thinking the same thing, lived in Arlington for that one (and that winter) it was so awesome in DC that Saturday. Cold smoke, high ratios......hoping we are somewhat similar in this storm and then what happened afterward, liking the late bump in QPF across pretty much all guidance....... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, annapolismike said: What appears to be happening is the storm is stronger and increasing the amount of precipitation across the area. To infer the storm is moving north is incorrect. If anything the northern extent of the precipitation shield has moved south. The coastal low is forming further north and west than previous runs. Being tucked closer to the coast is enhancing precip. The northern extent has moved south but that's because the confluence is coming in stronger than progged. Basically, the storm is getting compressed with slp further north and all of this has been to the benefit of our region. Good times. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like 18z GFS will be a slight step back... but probably noise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Looks like 18z GFS will be a slight step back... but probably noise Looks like it tries to do something with the costal but is too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Coastal gets going a bit further south so less love up this way. Gives RIC or just north reason to rejoice a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Coastal gets going a bit further south so less love up this way. Gives RIC or just north reason to rejoice a bit. The whole thing looks better. The lower totals north are just a result of banding. I like the increases south and east. Look at the uptick in totals near St. Louis and east of there in the last 12 hours. It’s showing over a foot in areas it showed 7 or 8 inches for 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: 18z GFS continues the slight north trend, more amplified this run than the 12z run. It's better. Not accurate. Much better if you're south of Stafford county, but a downtick for most of the area. Verbatim, less than 0.3" at DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, snjókoma said: Not accurate. Much better if you're south of Stafford county, but a downtick for most of the area. Verbatim, less than 0.3" at DCA. That's why I deleted my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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