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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Faquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA.  There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area.

At least S. Faquier I would agree with the rest.  PWC has quite the spread with 8 at the southern tip to 4 in the north.  But that lollipop should throw them in the mix of a watch.  Certainly Stafford.  

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Let’s just hug the RGEM :scooter:

I was just about to post that lol

ninja’d

I tell you what too... CMC has consistently pointed at higher totals (little ebb and flow) and better coastal enhancement. The 12z is even better than 0z lol. 

If it scores a coup on the gfs/euro I’ll build a mini shrine to it on my desk 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Replace "folks" with mappy/psu/highstakes/losetoa6 and your analysis is perfect. 

I'm gonna put a jar out to collect and then melt the snow afterwards to see what my total is, really curious this storm to see how well (or don't) i do with ratios. 

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One clue that helps lock in a decent event around here is the mix line has continuously bumped further north. The battlezone being so close is a good sign that we're going to do fine. Deep cold into NC usually breaks on the light side. Having the mix line move into the northern neck is one of the classic positions for not worrying about things drying out at the last minute. Someone just north of where that line sets up is probably in a boom spot. 

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While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. 

I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight.  What is the end time frame?  I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning.  Thought? 

Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One clue that helps lock in a decent event around here is the mix line has continuously bumped further north. The battlezone being so close is a good sign that we're going to do fine. Deep cold into NC usually breaks on the light side. Having the mix line move into the northern neck is one of the classic positions for not worrying about things drying out at the last minute. Someone just north of where that line sets up is probably in a boom spot. 

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. 

I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight.  What is the end time frame?  I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning.  Thought? 

Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. 

That can't be answered accurately at this time.  Anything would be a wag.  It depends how things go once we are at gametime. 

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

EZF is almost certainly not going to mix. I wouldn't worry about that. It's possible but even if the mix line approaches you'll make up for it with bigger QPF. 

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2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah, noticed that as well, worried it might get up into EZF, but as you said chips fall mode here soon. It's gonna be a great wintry weekend.

I agree with Bob.  Have family down there so I get reports...bad ones but still something.  If there is any pingers they would be east of the fall line/95 is my guess but I don't think its an issue either until maybe Caroline County. 

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I feel like the Canadian models had one really good winter a few years back where it was consistently performing really well, especially the RGEM, and then everyone started giving it a lot more credence and it has failed rather miserably since then, often portraying colder temps and more snow than what actually falls.

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13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

While I love the Canadians, their short range models have given us many false hopes the past few years. They should be snow experts, so I’m hoping this is correct. 

I’m a little confused about timing. I believe the light snow is starting in the DC metro area on Saturday afternoon with more snow overnight.  What is the end time frame?  I’ve seen people say it will be over by Sunday afternoon and others say it will be snowing lightly through early Monday morning.  Thought? 

Thank you all for your wonderful analysis. 

the system is 2 parts

tomorrow into sunday morning is the overrunning warm air advection snow then the coastal portion takes over

so if anyone sees snow into sunday evening or even monday, its because of the coastal. those finer details seem to be still up in the air

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I feel like the Canadian models had one really good winter a few years back where it was consistently performing really well, especially the RGEM, and then everyone started giving it a lot more credence and it has failed rather miserably since then, often portraying colder temps and more snow than what actually falls.

I noticed the Canadian models in general are better with handling a CAD setup where margins of error are very small. Now, they can over-do the setup and create some discrepancy on the p-type, but they can handle the general idea right. In these types of setups, I tend to shy away from the Canadian guidance, except the HRDPS when it comes to immediate short term. That model has a solid track record with adjustments in the near term, similar to the 3km NAM and to some degree the HRRR (Rare but happens on occasion. Use HRRR at your own risk). The RAP can be good as well in the near term and actually is geared for the synoptic scale with its 13km Res.  

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Agree with something BobChill said about the mix line coming north in more recent model runs and how that's a positive for our area. You definitely want mixing into Virginia to get the better stuff up our way. Hopefully, that line creeps a bit farther north in the next 24 hours.

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