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January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE


WxUSAF
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25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

6Z GFS Cobb data. I am not going to post the entire thing. It is too long. I will just post the highest snow total for each airport. If you want to see all of the data from your closest airport go here and enter your airport code: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kiad

kmrb:


190113/0800Z  50  11004KT  28.7F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    8:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  100|  0|  0

kiad:


190113/1400Z  56  07006KT  29.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   11:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0

kdca:


190113/1500Z  57  06007KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    9:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31  100|  0|  0

kbwi:


190113/1500Z  57  06007KT  29.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0

woo:


190113/2000Z  62  05006KT  29.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    9:1|  6.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

Ratios are pretty low.

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12z was clearly a step back from 6z's improvement. That's pretty clear to me, same goes for the ICON. It looks like what PSU is saying for us northern folk... more coastal steals moisture from WAA precip. Need the late game 40 mile north trend. Thought we'd continue the run after unanimous improvement at 6z, but alas the usual occurs the next cycle. 

f94faa7b-a989-4005-b797-877c7ed6bd5c.gif

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

12z was clearly a step back from 6z's improvement. That's pretty clear to me, same goes for the ICON. It looks like what PSU is saying for us northern folk... more coastal steals moisture from WAA precip. Need the late game 40 mile north trend. Thought we'd continue the run after unanimous improvement at 6z, but alas the usual occurs the next cycle. 

f94faa7b-a989-4005-b797-877c7ed6bd5c.gif

I think at this point it's just noise. The shift was nothing more than a wobble inside a pretty tight envelope. Could easily bump the other way at 18z but it would be noise again. Chips fall here shortly. Storms always differ a little from short range guidance. The lucky ones will be figured out in real time imho

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

12z was clearly a step back from 6z's improvement. That's pretty clear to me, same goes for the ICON. It looks like what PSU is saying for us northern folk... more coastal steals moisture from WAA precip. Need the late game 40 mile north trend. Thought we'd continue the run after unanimous improvement at 6z, but alas the usual occurs the next cycle. 

f94faa7b-a989-4005-b797-877c7ed6bd5c.gif

Thinking those calling for the large areas of 6 to 10 inches in the region are going to find these amounts are isolated and/or higher elevations. 2 to 4 seems prudent and the higher amounts will be 4 to 6 inches for the majority of people. We will see if the EURO holds serve, but I suspect it will.

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I think at this point it's just noise. The shift was nothing more than a wobble inside a pretty tight envelope. Could easily bump the other way at 18z but it would be noise again. Chips fall here shortly. Storms always differ a little from short range guidance. The lucky ones will be figured out in real time imho

That's true Bob. We know the tendencies that do exist with a WAA swath of precip (i.e. timing and possible banding). 

The DGZ layer does look solid for good ratios, especially north of DC up to PSU land. I would say that part could present some upside for those lucky enough at gametime. 

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

Slight change for my back yard in Arlington. 6z had me 4-5” this is 3-4”. So slight qpf reduction across the area on the whole. Not horrible but definitely didn’t bump up

It’s noise.  A global isn’t going to nail precip to the .1.  I wouldn’t worry.  You can see on the precip maps that it’s starting to pick up on banding, etc so the contours will shift around.

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Thinking those calling for the large areas of 6 to 10 inches in the region are going to find these amounts are isolated and/or higher elevations. 2 to 4 seems prudent and the higher amounts will be 4 to 6 inches for the majority of people. We will see if the EURO holds serve, but I suspect it will.

 

I'd agree, I think over the last 24 hours I'm more inclined to go 3-5 with 6" lolli's over 2-4, but that's certainly a safe play and one news outlets other than CWG 0-8 will present us as their forecast. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

It’s noise.  A global isn’t going to nail precip to the .1.  I wouldn’t worry.  You can see on the precip maps that it’s starting to pick up on banding, etc so the contours will shift around.

Yea I did see the contour shifts and I’m not too worried. Less than I was yesterday that’s for sure! But I’m pretty happy with my call of 2-4” I made two days ago. Has felt that way to me and all the guidance I’ve absorb over last 72hours lol hasn’t really changed that general premise. Chill is probably right, just model noise as we close in. Almost game time so feeling solid at this point  for putting a score on the board 

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Fully realize most people won’t care, but for my fellow posters in the CHO area I’m getting slightly concerned about us being too far south for the WAA stuff and not close enough to the coastal. Been a persistent dry area just south of CHO for the past couple GFS runs. The usual tick north at the end might make us upset.

69f1a2bb089ed8b51090078a7e43ce51.jpg

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i don't think a lot has changed since yesterday.  the same general idea on 12z applies...there's clues as to how this could boom and there's clues as to how this could bust.  we need the first part of this storm to verify and/or the coastal to be further north and not get punted ots so easily by that stout high funneling in from the GL.  we should know more by monday morning.

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

Yea I did see the contour shifts and I’m not too worried. Less than I was yesterday that’s for sure! But I’m pretty happy with my call of 2-4” I made two days ago. Has felt that way to me and all the guidance I’ve absorb over last 72hours lol hasn’t really changed that general premise. Chill is probably right, just model noise as we close in. Almost game time so feeling solid at this point  for putting a score on the board 

Let’s just hug the RGEM :scooter:

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see LWX nudge the watch up into Calvert and Charles County in MD and Fauquier, Stafford and Prince William Counties in VA.  There's been a consistent bump in the 06/12z guidance for near warning level snow in that area.

Was thinking the same thing, would imagine it would come after the 12z Euro.......

LOL, 12z CMC just dropped over 1" of QPF in EZF, a little over done I'd say

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