Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Probably a pretty realistic expectation IMO: That lolly north of Baltimore looks very tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's got my Parrs ridge Jack zone so... It's also got the DCA snow hole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: It's also got the DCA snow hole Can't beat climo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: It's also got the DCA snow hole I make no apologies for my climo. I commute an extra hour every day for my 20 extra inches of snow a year and 10 degree cooler days in the summer. Gfs and Icon so far have put the nam crisis to bed. At this point the coastal idea seems dead but maybe a slightly better trend in the waa and we could still see 3-5" in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Zoomed in GFS snowmap for the DC and close in suburbs people. I’d be completely happy with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Also, does the ICON "true SLR" algorithm have a track record of underdoing the ratios? Maybe it hasn't been around long enough for us to know for sure, but I'm honestly curious about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The position of the high seems much farther north than most blocked coastals we experience. Could we infer a shift farther north due to the high being so far north? See my post above. The high isn't the problem. Confluence isn't the problem. Compression of the upper level flow is the pricked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The position of the high seems much farther north than most blocked coastals we experience. Could we infer farther north due to the high being so far north? It's not the hp location. Look at 500mb isobars. Strong confluence with the 2 streams bumping into each other. Upper level flow is due east. It could bump north 50 miles at this point but not too much more imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I make no apologies for my climo. I commute an extra hour every day for my 20 extra inches of snow a year and 10 degree cooler days in the summer. Gfs and Icon so far have put the nam crisis to bed. At this point the coastal idea seems dead but maybe a slightly better trend in the waa and we could still see 3-5" in spots. Me too brother. I choose to live all the way out here in the middle of nowhere so I can score 4 inches instead of 2 in events like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I thought it was odd to see the American models having the arctic high so far north, but then I noticed the midday euro has it positioned much farther south and almost perfectly for our region! This high would be textbook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Guys NAM and GFS are absolutely compromised by this shutdown. My buddy at NWS confirmed this fact. He said to blend the Canadian and Ukie for the consensus. He’s thinking 3-6” area wide for Maryland and dc proper. 8” lollipops in central vaThe numerical models are not compromised. We’ve received all the data necessary to run efficiently and the 0 and 12z RAOB recaps have actually shown fewer sites with issues which means data ingestion has been best it’s been in a while. Idk where your friend heard this, but it’s not true. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Zoomed in GFS snowmap for the DC and close in suburbs people. I’d be completely happy with this. What’s with the 6 in Stafford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's not the hp location. Look at 500mb isobars. Strong confluence with the 2 streams bumping into each other. Upper level flow is due east. It could bump north 50 miles at this point but not too much more imho People think it's the NS. Yea it's part that in so much as the combination of the dominant low to the northeast and the system crashing into the west coast is compressing the whole trough and flattening it. But it's the suppression of the whole h5 trough that's washing out the system not the flow to the northeast. If this system was amped up we would be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Fv3 holding with .25 into PA and .50 near DC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FV3 has the 0.5” line tickling DC on the southern portion of the city. 0.25” on the M/D line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z CMC still gets 0.5 QPF line past DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Chase said: What’s with the 6 in Stafford? A modeled lolly. How do you like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 At this point I think it's safe to throw out the wacky NAM run. Most guidance looks good for a nice 2-3" event, with maybe a bit more in VA and southern MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: A modeled lolly. How do you like that? That Lolly is about 2 miles from my house, lol. Seriously though, 2-4” in and around DC and 3-5”+ down toward EZF seems pretty good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, wawarriors4 said: That Lolly is about 2 miles from my house, lol. Seriously though, 2-4” in and around DC and 3-5”+ down toward EZF seems pretty good. Exactly where my head is at. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Jma looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @cae Looks to me that the 00z HRDPS looks like the RGEM/GFS at 48. It also looks more north with the QPF field when you compare 00z at 42 with 18z at 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 HDERPS look good but i'm worried the army of highs are going to kick the storms ass 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I agree with the rest. 2-4 possibly 3-6 seems realistic. Great way to end the snow drought. And an amazing start to an incredible pattern coming up for the next month or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 When does the HRRR come in range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Lol GGEM... it cut back from 12z... but it probably makes more sense now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I agree with the rest. 2-4 possibly 3-6 seems realistic. Great way to end the snow drought. And an amazing start to an incredible pattern coming up for the next month or so. Quite possibly the next two months. We have an amazing pattern coming up, and the good thing is, after this coming week I'll have a lot more free time. I'm really looking forward to this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, jackb979 said: When does the HRRR come in range? Around 18 hours before event. HRRRX is up to 36 hours, but...uh... it's at https://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ which is....shutdown... (unless someone knows somewhere else that currently has it?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 First forecasts by NWS Pitt for Garrett/Canaan going with 4-6”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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