WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It almost seems like the stronger confluence is helping with the waa leaf. Since it isnt as dispersed to the north like runs yesterday, it appears to be more concentrated as it bumps agaist the wall. Maybe its better lift in combination with more juice. It might be. HM has mentioned this on Twitter. And if it moves through the region from S to N, we all get some of it. Hoping it drops a fairly uniform 2” and then we see what happens with coastal enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It might be. HM has mentioned this on Twitter. And if it moves through the region from S to N, we all get some of it. Hoping it drops a fairly uniform 2” and then we see what happens with coastal enhancement. Or...the best rates could stall in N MD as the factory does it's thing to our north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i wonder whats its like tracking a rainstorm this closely.....the ups and downs...ebs and flows I'll never find the answer to that question but we'll be in hrrr range late tomorrow night. Get your sleep in now. Eta: most important 18z euro run ever here shortly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 It almost seems like the stronger confluence is helping with the waa leaf. Since it isnt as dispersed to the north like runs yesterday, it appears to be more concentrated as it bumps agaist the wall. Maybe its better lift in combination with more juice.This is the reason I’m not ruling out a secondary max somewhere to the north. Preferably Parr’s Ridge area since there’s an orographic enhancement element involved and the fact it happens 90% of the time . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is the reason I’m not ruling out a secondary max somewhere to the north. Preferably Parr’s Ridge area since there’s an orographic enhancement element involved and the fact it happens 90% of the time . I just checked some soundings. You might be right. SE surface winds at onset then east then NE. That's a pretty good combo for all the usual suspects. Basically anyone above 500'. Could also spell trouble for the fdk valley tho... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still not pretty but actually significantly better than the pancake at 12z. It will never be pretty Robert Chill. The best we can hope for is some coastal loving before it scrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It will never be pretty Robert Chill. The best we can hope for is some coastal loving before it scrams. If it's any consolation... i just looked at soundings all over the place and dc looks pretty good for snow growth through the whole event. Better than my yard. Enjoy your fluffy dendrites. Areas south of dc look really good. Should be postcard scenes down there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Agree...I'm thinking .30" - .40" here (3-5" ). I personally believe this system will be juicer coming in at game time . Along with that I think a couple mini qpf maxes will be realized with banding features in the WAA . Coastal enhancement would be bonus Looks like you and mappy and psu are un for some fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just checked some soundings. You might be right. SE surface winds at onset then east then NE. That's a pretty good combo for all the usual suspects. Basically anyone above 500'. Could also spell trouble for the fdk valley tho... No doubt. The enhancement and higher totals in the catoctins just to the west and northwest of the fdk valley has been consistently modeled for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Fv3 is right in line. Nice margin with the .25 line north of the md line. DC scores with .50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is right in line. Nice margin with the .25 line north of the md line. DC scores with .50 18z has been kind. An hour until the Euro hopefully continues that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z has been kind. An hour until the Euro hopefully continues that. Rgem at hour 54 looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z has been kind. An hour until the Euro hopefully continues that. If we can keep trends going with beefing up the WAA snow maybe we can get the entire sub forum into the .5 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z has been kind. An hour until the Euro hopefully continues that. Agree. 12z tomorrow will probably nail down the waa leaf. Should be fairly well organized by then. One of the things saving this event for us is waa precip to our west has shifted to wetter and better organized. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 What is the timing for snow to begin say east of the blue ridge?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I really like the qpf disbursement on the fv3. Much better for MD than 12z. My yard most importantly 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z FV-3 Low coming in a little further N... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z has been kind. An hour until the Euro hopefully continues that. Lock up that FV3 run. Bag, grab, extract, or whatever. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really like the qpf disbursement on the fv3. Much better for MD than 12z. My yard most importantly That's a nice run with blues in my front yard...my back yard is still in green though. One or two more pushes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Shouldn't even be posting ens output anymore but this is the first gefs with little spread. Noticeable improvement from 12z. Looks like we're locking in 2-6" areawide with some 6+ jacks for some lucky folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Shouldn't even be posting ens output anymore but this is the first gefs with little spread. Noticeable improvement from 12z. Looks like we're locking in 2-6" areawide with some 6+ jacks for some lucky folks Not a lot of disasters in there either. 90% of those would make most of us pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z GGEM on meteocentre looks nice http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en↦=na&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Mount Holly put out their initial snowfall forecast for this event. An inch in NE MD and N DE, 2" Chestertown to Dover, 4" Easton to Georgetown to Rehoboth. Looks like 3" for my yard. I would be way good with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Damn. Yoder with some good news finally. 18z GGEM is really nice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I don’t know the scale of blues. But it looks heavy. But it probably isn’t. Lol. I’m on my phone so it’s a pain to pull up detailed maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Damn. Yoder with some good news finally. 18z GGEM is really nice. Beat me to it brother GGEM is sweet with primary in central TN then coastal taking over around Hatteras I believe at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just want to say that the posting in this thread has been really good today. I had a long day at work and was unable to look at any models all day today. Was nice to be able to come right in here and get caught up. I really like the look of the Canadian models at 18Z. The RGEM has been on a bad streak lately. I hope it has fixed itself and is correct for once. The other thing I noticed on the runs throughout the day is that the precip seems to be pretty much locked in as a 3-6 event for the majority of our area. It has been a long time since we have had a region wide 3-6 event without any temp issues. Really looking forward to this storm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Anyone got photos of 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 A lot of convective potential, I think 00z will trend north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just want to say that the posting in this thread has been really good today. I had a long day at work and was unable to look at any models all day today. Was nice to be able to come right in here and get caught up. I really like the look of the Canadian models at 18Z. The RGEM has been on a bad streak lately. I hope it has fixed itself and is correct for once. The other thing I noticed on the runs throughout the day is that the precip seems to be pretty much locked in as a 3-6 event for the majority of our area. It has been a long time since we have had a region wide 3-6 event without any temp issues. Really looking forward to this storm. Not that I fully disagree that the RGEM/HDERPS/CMC are bad models, but they (and the NAMs) did the best with the early December storm in Central VA. As someone mentioned earlier, the whole suite does like to over-estimate the northern extent of precip. Otherwise their performance in December impressed me. Totally agree with the rest. A winner region wide? Amazing. We need this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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