Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'm not a huge fan of the model but the icon has a more consolidated shortwave approaching. Should be a little better with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 What I like seeing so far on the 18 z models is the WAA coming in stronger and less into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I'm confused as to why DC would experience any UHI effect in this scenario given temps in the mid-20s? Why would that limit our snow total? I went to College Park a little while ago, and even when it was under 25 degrees (1/30/2010), the snow was melting on contact on the sidewalks. Some spots really do have a terrible heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, peribonca said: What I like seeing so far on the 18 z models is the WAA coming in stronger and less into PA. RGEM has a much more impressive precip shield at H54 than the NAM does, although it does seem to be a bias of that model (overestimating precip in dry air - in the 12/9 storm it had the furthest north, and most gradual cutoff). It will be interesting to have the HRDPS in range tomorrow - according to cae it did the best of the meso models for that storm with the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, Chase said: LWX also modified how they will do the Winter Weather Outlook for the week... interesting dividing lines. The Shenandoah Valley in me also resents being named the "Piedmont." Nice for weenies, but I hope that's not their primary way of alerting the public. Way too complicated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: RGEM has a much more impressive precip shield at H54 than the NAM does, although it does seem to be a bias of that model (overestimating precip in dry air - in the 12/9 storm it had the furthest north, and most gradual cutoff). It will be interesting to have the HRDPS in range tomorrow - according to cae it did the best of the meso models for that storm with the cutoff. With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol We haven’t gotten desperate yet. If we have to start leaning on the SREFs then we will know we are in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol Looks a lot like the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Psu..is that better waa snow up your way or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS looks a little better from US 50-south to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS looks much better wow North push is real 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 This run is more inline with the Euro...good agreement between GFS and euro here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS somewhat better through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nice track on the gfs...inland NC at hour 66 instead of off Wilmington...DC might do well with the coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Moderate snow to DC at 66 on GFS - significant improvement from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Beachin said: GFS looks much better wow North push is real I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Great sign to see higher snow totals in the Ohio valley. The precip is hanging on longer as it moves east. Should help us with the WAA snow. Here's the 12z and 18z to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro Maybe not for you, but it's a good amount better for DCA. I don't mean to be rude, just saying overall 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I will say there are improvements at h5 with a bit better orientation and less squashing, in addition to the confluence not pressing down as much in NE. There was a decent step towards some coastal impacts around DC and those south. If we can get psu's fabled 50 mile north shift, the gfs would look very much like the CMC/some of the EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Slight tick north with the heaviest precip. Pretty good agreement between Euro and GFS now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro No he’s not. At least down this way 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Well. Let’s hope this continues at 0z 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Interesting to see the lwx low end at 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 From WPC evening update with 4" snow accums chances: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well. Let’s hope this continues at 0z i hope 12z GFS was the rock bottom valley for this event. If we get a similar N Shift that we got on dec 9, it could be good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I liked both the gfs and icon vort panels. If there's a trend in the short range, let it be a better consolidated vort. Locking into what we first thought and a path to upside isnt out of the question 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Great sign to see higher snow totals in the Ohio valley. The precip is hanging on longer as it moves east. Should help us with the WAA snow. Here's the 12z and 18z to compare. Agreed...The more moisture slug we can get up into the OHV the better we should do being further west. I have found that these WAA event moving from W--->E do pretty well around here. The mountains will do there thing but I can envision a 12-15:1 event out here with .35" qpf. Would = a nice event imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Still not pretty but actually significantly better than the pancake at 12z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 It almost seems like the stronger confluence is helping with the waa leaf. Since it isnt as dispersed to the north like runs yesterday, it appears to be more concentrated as it bumps agaist the wall. Maybe its better lift in combination with more juice. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts