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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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3 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. 

Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD.  However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF.

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2 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. 

Concerned as in it looks awfully north? 

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6 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

Is anyone concerned with what the Nam is showing? I realize it is well outside of it's range but still.. 

I'm only concerned with what I'm going to eat for lunch, but what do you mean by concern?  The 12z run was a little flatter with the wave.  It has NE GA around Lake Lanier dropping to 32 deg at the end of its run at hr84 as precip moves in (Saturday at 7PM).  It doesn't have a big, long plume of moisture across the south though.

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The NAM is definitely lacking moisture...

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD.  However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF.

Yea, sorry I wasn't clear to what I was referring to. I was talking about both the fact that it seemed well north and seemed rather low on qpf. 

 

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

I'm only concerned with what I'm going to eat for lunch, but what do you mean by concern?  The 12z run was a little flatter with the wave.  It has NE GA around Lake Lanier dropping to 32 deg at the end of its run at hr84 as precip moves in (Saturday at 7PM).  It doesn't have a big, long plume of moisture across the south though.

Yea sorry I should have been more specific as to what I meant. I meant the fact that the model seemed to be rather low on moisture compared to the other global models. 

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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The NAM is definitely lacking moisture...

It was lacking with precip at range with the early Dec storm as well, so it could very well ramp up with moisture.  Having said that, this is certainly a lighter precip setup compared to that one.  As a comparison, the latest EPS mean has 0.50 to 0.75 for the area from Asheville to Charlotte for this one...the early Dec storm had 2.0 to 2.5 on the EPS Mean prior to the storm.

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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

It was lacking with precip at range with the early Dec storm as well, so it could very well ramp up with moisture.  Having said that, this is certainly a lighter precip setup compared to that one.  As a comparison, the latest EPS mean has 0.50 to 0.75 for the area from Asheville to Charlotte for this one...the early Dec storm had 2.0 to 2.5 on the EPS Mean prior to the storm.

How did the December storm verify in regard to precip, does anybody know? I know that thing was modeled juiced up, but I swear I only got about 6 hours of moderate precip.  Started about 2 in the morning and by 8 am it turned to a light sleet.  I doubt I got anywhere close to 2 inches qpf. 

Just to highlight this event as modeled could be even lighter come verification...seems like it usually is each winter storm. 

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The models are really struggling to figure out what to do with our storm wave Friday evening just east of the Rockies.  The shortwave that topples the western U.S. ridge in the split flow and works down into the southern plains either shears out the southern wave (in which case the wave is weaker and wants to trek more west to east - a colder solution) or cleanly falls into it (in which case the phasing wave is stronger and climbs north a bit - a warmer solution that puts more pressure on the cold air dam)

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I am unsure where the battle lines will setup regarding Rain/ZR/Sleet/Snow in NC, but the ZR band with this one is going to be legit. I was skeptical of what the models were showing with ZR back in early December as the setup didnt' really favor ZR. This one definitely does. Pretty classic HP configuration is continuing to show up on the models. There will likely be freezing rain warnings sent out on this one at some point Fri/Sat for parts of NC. Whether that features Charlotte/Raleigh, it's too early to say. That said, this one has some of the critical pieces we look for when forecasting an Icestorm in the metro areas of NC.

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5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

How did the December storm verify in regard to precip, does anybody know? I know that thing was modeled juiced up, but I swear I only got about 6 hours of moderate precip.  Started about 2 in the morning and by 8 am it turned to a light sleet.  I doubt I got anywhere close to 2 inches qpf. 

Just to highlight this event as modeled could be even lighter come verification...seems like it usually is each winter storm. 

Oh it was juiced well over 1.0 qpf as advertised. The ratios where like 5 to 1 when we where getting snow, then had a lot of sleet. It qpf, verified stellar.

And yes the NAM did hiccup several cycles on the qpf as we  started working our way in from 84 hrs. But Grit hit the nail on head and everything I've seen suggest .50-1.0 as good consensus for qpf forecast as of right now. That's nothing to sneeze at in the winter. But after the December Snowapocolypse some experienced, we've been shock & awed lol. So its like even if we could squeeze out 3-6 inches of snow this weekend, a lot of posters would be like ok. When in years past we would have over 100 folks on here chasing this event.

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12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I am unsure where the battle lines will setup regarding Rain/ZR/Sleet/Snow in NC, but the ZR band with this one is going to be legit. I was skeptical of what the models were showing with ZR back in early December as the setup didnt' really favor ZR. This one definitely does. Pretty classic HP configuration is continuing to show up on the models. There will likely be freezing rain warnings sent out on this one at some point Fri/Sat for parts of NC. Whether that features Charlotte/Raleigh, it's too early to say. That said, this one has some of the critical pieces we look for when forecasting an Icestorm in the metro areas of NC.

You need to read less and post more...and hire a puppy sitter

The 12z Canadian has bumped south this run with precip and mid level temps, but similar with sfc temps and it has good precip coverage

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

You need to read less and post more...and hire a puppy sitter

The 12z Canadian has bumped south this run with precip and mid level temps, but similar with sfc temps and it has good precip coverage

lol i wish. I am working from home today and he is driving me cray..... GFS looks like a good thump for western NC.

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Not only VA but WNC. Boone gets 17 inches this run per GFS. I like the trends for WNC. More qpf. 

That's the key to.... will this thing trend wetter? Would make a big difference in ice or snow quantity.

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New UKMet on the early maps: Sfc low is in southern Bama at 96, then well off NC at 120.  The 500mb wave is in the sheared out camp...more of a west to east trek...so, it doesn't look like the storm bumped north this run.  CAD setup looks fine.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

New UKMet on the early maps: Sfc low is in southern Bama at 96, then well off NC at 120.  The 500mb wave is in the sheared out camp...more of a west to east trek...so, it doesn't look like the storm bumped north this run.  CAD setup looks fine.

Sounds good for us in the southeast.

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

With the GFS and CMC, what is the ice/sleet potential looking like for central NC?

Pivotal hasn't updated on freezing rain yet, but just looking at the Tropical Tidbits map it's about the same as 0z (bad ice storm for us).

The 12z GFS is still mostly rain for the RDU folks but it wouldn't take much of a south shift to change that.  

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11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

CMC is actually worse (or good if you like ice).

12z CMC freezing rain at hr 102):

aaaa.jpg

I'll pass on that.

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