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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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Good to see guys get a few front end flakes.

The meat potatoes is supose to start at midnight sat night and end 9am Sunday here. If you want to see a flake it will have to be from the finger precip thats waa driven out in front. Clouding up now. Did notice a milky break around 9am for an hour or two tommorow morning on a animated sat loop across upstate western NC/SC line. So if thats true then, that will explain why the cad doesnt get it done there this time when normally it would. Cant pick worse timing fo r the moisture to roll in NE GA/ upstate. Been fun to track, but havent never really felt this one getting to a mid major event,let alone a big dog. So well see if moisture can beat the clock.  Played around on the models with this one long enough. Ready to go hunt one of those big dogss daY 10-15

 

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's the latest Canadian RDPS ice qpf.  

P7KBnHs.png

Grit, this keeps getting worse every model run for the triad.  You would think the mets would be screaming Ice Storm Warning on the morning update if this holds serve tonight, right?  This is flat out ugly!

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24 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Grit, this keeps getting worse every model run for the triad.  You would think the mets would be screaming Ice Storm Warning on the morning update if this holds serve tonight, right?  This is flat out ugly!

I like using the Euro Ens Mean for precip amounts.  It has around 0.75 total for GSO on 18z run.  RDPS has 1.3 total on 00z run.

Scanning thru the RDPS soundings, it has this for the GSO precip type (assuming there is precip falling - which I wouldn't expect it to be solid precip at all times):

Sat 1PM: snow, 35 deg

Sat 4PM:  snow, 33 deg

Sat 7PM: sleet, 31 deg

Sat 10PM: sleet, 29 deg

Sun 1AM: sleet, 29 deg

Sun 4AM: sleet, 29 deg

Sun 7AM: freezing rain, 30 deg

Sun 10AM: freezing rain / drizzle, 31 deg

The Euro is warmer than the RDPS and would imply more freezing rain than sleet.  I think a good ballpark for ice accretion would be 1/2 of QPF for this setup.  I would forecast around 0.75 of qpf for GSO, so it just comes down to how much is freezing rain vs. sleet.  If you get 0.75 of all freezing rain, it's 0.35 to 0.40 of ice accretion, but less if sleet is mixed in.  I would probably forecast 0.20 to 0.25 of ice accretion for GSO, with a ground covering of sleet

 

 

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20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Grit, this keeps getting worse every model run for the triad.  You would think the mets would be screaming Ice Storm Warning on the morning update if this holds serve tonight, right?  This is flat out ugly!

That’s a nightmare scenario for the Triad.  Crippling ice like that would set us back a week.

Why do these storms hit right when Van Denton has the weekend off at Fox 8?  Denton and East are the only local mets I trust.  Kate Garner downplays everything until it’s too late to act.  Remember how she said that Hurricane Michael wouldn’t be a problem for us?  I didn’t have power for three days.

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Current National Weather Service zone forecasts for GSO are tempered at the moment with no mention of sleet

How things play out between NW Guilford and SE Guilford could be night and day different.  They provide a little more detail in my part of town.

AD801136-F2F6-41E8-B6CF-7C841DF273C7.jpeg

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1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

That’s a nightmare scenario for the Triad.  Crippling ice like that would set us back a week.

Why do these storms hit right when Van Denton has the weekend off at Fox 8?  Denton and East are the only local mets I trust.  Kate Garner downplays everything until it’s too late to act.  Remember how she said that Hurricane Michael wouldn’t be a problem for us?  I didn’t have power for three days.

Don't worry about Van. If this storm is serious enough he'll be in by 6pm news tomorrow. :snowing:

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

It will be interesting to see which model ends up more correct, the Canadian RDPS with freezing rain down to I-85 or the Euro with the freezing rain down to I-40.  Here's the latest Canadian RDPS

JgnQ3bN.gif

CMC is going to be wrong! Outlier, it and the NAM! Way off! Sitting @ 37 right now

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10 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. 

J/B is all pumped up about winter coming.  

Hope he’s right again 

Well I hope JB is right, I keep waiting, looking at the next 10 days I see rain and warm then we get a three or four day span of possible winter weather temps but its sunny, no moisture, go figure.  We're going to run out of time if this pumped up winter coming doesn't come soon.

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Quick question. Why would they issue a Winter storm warning, instead of a Ice storm warning for the triad. Doesnt 1/4 of ice meet criteria? Thanks

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24 atm, thick dusting of snow overnight...IMO this is gonna be an icy mess, hopefully more sleet than ZR, be safe everyone and remember to get your milk and bread :)

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15 minutes ago, hickory said:

Quick question. Why would they issue a Winter storm warning, instead of a Ice storm warning for the triad. Doesnt 1/4 of ice meet criteria? Thanks

They no longer longer use Ice Storm Warnings anymore in this part of the Country.

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Dewpoint in Asheville is 17 right now and humidity keeps inching up, soon it should start snowing even though the temp is 35 with that dewpoint temps will go down quickly when the precip starts.

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The morning 6z NAM products and 12z HRRR is making this more of an I-40 and north event. The 12z HRRR will make most jump ship if you are south of I-40.

 

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3 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

The morning 6z NAM products and 12z HRRR is making this more of an I-40 and north event. The 12z HRRR will make most jump ship if you are south of I-40.

 

The latest HRRR is consistent with 12Z NAM.  It’s a DC special.  A non-event for just about everyone in North Carolina, except the highest mountains and elevated valleys.  System has jumped north a good 75-100 miles.  Last nights runs had no snow for Chicago...now models give them 2-4" today.  This brings warm nose more robustly across NC, leaving most of us with just a brief onset of wintry precip before changing to a cold rain.

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

The latest HRRR is consistent with 12Z NAM.  It’s a DC special.  A non-event for just about everyone in North Carolina, except the highest mountains and elevated valleys.  System has jumped north a good 75-100 miles.  Last nights runs had no snow for Chicago...now models give them 2-4" today.  This brings warm nose more robustly across NC, leaving most of us with just a brief onset of wintry precip before changing to a cold rain.

12Z NAM says otherwise. Most ice it has shown all storm long. 

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