Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Nowhere close to what’s forecast in upstate and N GA. Which is why this is still so hard to give any credence to.

I should have said in the Western Piedmont of NC... my bad. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used.  i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. 
here it is with 2 degree intervals. 



Yes sir! Old timers!


.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For RDU folks this will be close. As always we're right on (or near) the line of getting just rain or a significant winter event. 

Might come down to monitoring temps and precip timing during the day tomorrow. I think right now the foothills, parts of the southeast Piedmont, NW Piedmont, into VA are looking solid for at least winter storm criteria conditions.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Interesting from Judah Cohen!!
I feel like the Canadian regional model is a solid model and should be considered seriously more so than their global model.


.

I hope the Maple Leaf has it right this time. Barking the loudest . I can tell you the Canadian suite owns the Am suite of models when it comes to CAD. Especially the 2 global s. The GFS is as helpful as a  commode without water in it. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:
  1 hour ago, Lookout said:
yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used.  i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. 
here it is with 2 degree intervals.
6
1 hour ago, Lookout said:

yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used.  i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. 

here it is with 2 degree intervals. 

 

 

 

6
1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:



Yes sir! Old timers!

.

2

OK, with the quotes that makes three times. Now what do you want, I was taking a nap?    

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Heres the 12Z RDPS. Only goes out 48 Hours:

zr_acc.us_ma.png

That is a lot of ice. There is a huge disconnect right now with tomorrow. Gap mentioned the high wasn’t too strong but the last time I checked it looked pretty decent. It’s not all that cold (upper 40s) but the dew point is 21

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS, at least in Atlanta and GSP, clearly banking on the short range models overdoing the surface cold. Hopefully they’re right, or this will be an embarrassing bust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For NWS GSP's service area:

image.png.373927450e3b0b899a95a96a5faab75b.png

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...A HEAVY WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A low pressure system moving from the Mississippi River Valley to
the southern Appalachians Saturday night will spread wintry
precipitation across much of western North Carolina Sunday night
into Sunday. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will
develop with the heaviest accumulations of sleet and freezing rain
possibly making conditions treacherous for the latter half of the
weekend.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-501>510-120500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0001.190112T2300Z-190114T0000Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville,
Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens,
Salisbury, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock,
Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,
Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese,
Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
302 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations may range from about an inch in the southern part
  of the Watch area to 2 to 3 inches along the far northern Blue
  Ridge mountains. Ice accumulations could approach one quarter
  inch in many areas.

* WHERE...Western North Carolina mountain locations along and east
  of the central and northern Blue Ridge mountains, the adjacent
  North Carolina foothills, and the northwest piedmont of western
  North Carolina.

* WHEN...Light wintry precipitation may develop on Saturday, but
  with accumulations occurring primarily from Saturday evening
  through Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
  due to the snow, sleet, and ice. Travel could become
  treacherous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Looks like totals are lower on the 18z NAM

image.thumb.png.65ea8f4215d24a4a03c1f92c453f50aa.pngimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

I think they actually ticked up along and north of I-85.  I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH put Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford in the Winter Storm Watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Looks like totals are lower on the 18z NAM

image.thumb.png.65ea8f4215d24a4a03c1f92c453f50aa.pngimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

Multiple shortrange for awhile now still put out over or around 0.50 ZR for my area just west of Hickory(0.68 on that map). If its anything like the event in November it will catch a lot of people by surprise in my parts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

I think they actually ticked up along and north of I-85.  I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH put Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford in the Winter Storm Watch.

Nice call

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Overview: Confidence is increasing that we`ll see impactful icing
along with some snow/sleet accumulation across the Triad and the VA
border counties, occurring primarily Sat evening through the
overnight. Will issue a winter storm watch from the Triad NE across
the central VA border areas.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this thing overperforms the triad region is doomed.  .75 of ZR, after all the tree damage over the last 90 days or so would be lights out for a week.  My neighborhood alone has trees already overhanging roadways that desperately need to be cut by the county.  I truly hope this comes in dry like the GFS was showing.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, kvegas-wx said:

If this thing overperforms the triad region is doomed.  .75 of ZR, after all the tree damage over the last 90 days or so would be lights out for a week.  My neighborhood alone has trees already overhanging roadways that desperately need to be cut by the county.  I truly hope this comes in dry like the GFS was showing.

Not too worried where I am IMBY.  Sleet saves me virtually every time with the thickness of this cold air.  Quick hitter too.  Along I85 all bets are off however...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@SteveVa Virginia Beach public works and VDOT we’re out brining the roads in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake this morning. I can’t speak for Suffolk, Norfolk, or the cities on the Peninsula (Hampton , Newport News, or Williamsburg) but it looks like they think they’re getting some wintry weather this weekend.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM was not good for the last event iirc. I seem to remember it (and the CMC before the RGEM got into range) having a ton of ice that never verified. It seems to do better in the NE I think whereas the NAM seems to have a better handle on our region, at least in the last few years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I hit 50 today. Airmass not cold enough for anything but rain down here!

38 here. Havent cracked 40 in 2 days now. Yesterday high was midnight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×