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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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Hour 45 snow from northern mtns to Elizabeth City. Hour 48 snow line is from Ashe County to VA /NC state line above Elizabeth City. HOUR 51 Ice breaking out southern foothills.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Hour 54 needs to posted . Ice way down into northeast GA, SC. Talking lookouts back yard.

Imo if we were going to trust a model regarding thermals the NAM would be my go to, as to most others, so this def has some legs. 18z models had started to trend colder as well. Realizing the strength of the CAD.

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NAM is lights out for NE GA, upstate SC, and NC mtns. 0.25" - 0.75" on the charts. NC mtns in the 20s almost the entire storm. Concerning.

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Hour 45 snow from northern mtns to Elizabeth City. Hour 48 snow line is from Ashe County to VA /NC state line above Elizabeth City. HOUR 51 Ice breaking out southern foothills.

Well, being in Elizabeth City, that surprises me quite a lot.


.
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Biggest thing about the evolution of the associate precip shield and leaf structure is super odd imo and I would venture should be discounted at this point, especially when comparing to other models evolutions. What is the most concerning is the temp profile and subsequent ice potential now sticking out for the southern Appalachian chain. Mets are gonna have a headache with this one. 

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OZ Nam Jackpots Frosty 6 inches. DC doesnt even get 1 inch. They end up 9/10ths an inch of snow. 

 

Edit:  This is the bone dry 3k nam, Regular Nam has 4-8 across all Triad

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2 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


That 540 line is through the Northern Neck of Virginia.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You mean 534 line. 540 is central/south VA

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NAM dropped the snow line into about Timberlake this run, just about 16 miles north of me 

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5 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Snow wise, has the look/feel of car-topper at best in Triad before we torch mid-levels. I really hate freezing rain. 

It's really had that icy look all along. At this point I kinda just hope it torches and we get rain.

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You can see some fairly good snow returns at hour 63 along from Winston to Durham and northward.

85F6E23B-4A13-4512-BE06-3E8192D0E1F6.png

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Two things happen in almost every storm here. 

1. CAD over performs

2. Warm nose over performs

Same thing happened here last storm.  Got way less snow (almost none) than modeled and much more ice than modeled, albeit just shy of being enough to cause major issues luckily, but it was never really modeled as a big ice storm for me. 

Would not be surprised at all to see the CAD over perform again and there be more ice.  Question is how much ice though. 

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Just thinking about why it's not colder farther south in the wedge on the NAM (Charlotte is near freezing during the precip for example)...

Here's the NAM at hr54.  We see that the wedge configuration is in place with 1038mb sfc high north of the Great Lakes and Miller B sfc low configuration over the southeast.  However, we can see that the isobars aren't tightly packed so the wedge isn't a strong one.  You can also see that the surface winds are light.  A good wedge configuration has brisk winds in the damming region.  In spite of all that, it should be plenty cold enough for a solid mixed precip event across the NW Piedmont and N Foothills.

80v3gvB.png

RWHsOJd.png

 

As a comparison, here's the tightly packed wedge configuration from the big icing event in early Dec 2002 (sfc high is obviously not as far north as well).

zchop5y.png

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

RGEM is easily the snowiest model for the front end of this. 

Yes it is. We might get the mulch and roofs whitened up after all if we can get this front end little thump.

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