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January 12th-13th event


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Boy this thread died quickly!!

Screenshot_20190109-213846_Gallery.jpg

Dang yea it did! Hard to have a conversation with anyone bc I’m literally stuck in the middle of two threads with my geographic location. One being here and one being in the Mid Atlantic. Don’t want to be that guy that asks imby questions so gonna have to rely on watching model trends. 

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One of the experts like @griteater or someone else can help here... I noticed one of the locals here suggesting we get more snow than what is modeled  ... his reasoning is because of how far south the cold dry air will be and the evaporational cooling... he said the models dont take that into effect... just curious yalls opinion... hes a great meterologist... and he says he is confident.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

One of the experts like @griteater or someone else can help here... I noticed one of the locals here suggesting we get more snow than what is modeled  ... his reasoning is because of how far south the cold dry air will be and the evaporational cooling... he said the models dont take that into effect... just curious yalls opinion... hes a great meterologist... and he says he is confident.

Curious, what forecaster or station covers your area?  Someone in Danville or the Triad stations?  You are about 40 miles north of GSO, plus some elevation.  So this event could certainly be quite different for you vs N NC and the piedmont.

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Cmc amps and keeps primary to strong while all other guidance fizzles it,then it still keeps the primary going after the coastal revs up. You can see thats not supose to happen at h5. 0z runs so far has nam, gfs icon all agree the primary shears out west to east and the runing into the mtns,cad dome and press from the north is gonna chew this thing up. Whats left energy wise will be on life suport by time it transfers or reforms off SC coast. Looking like euro had right idea from earlier this week and lets lead wave dampen out and we get light moisture over cad as passes just to the south of NC and heads off coast ots.

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

ABC 13 out of Lynchburg 

I hear you my friend. But Lynchburg is quite a bit different than Danville.

Danville is one of those towns right in the middle of two tv markets. Right smack between the Triad, and the Roanoke/Lynchburg area. Makes it difficult to get an accurate forecast compared to other locales, because you don't have a met paid to specialize in that area.

In addition, you're also on the border between Blacksburg and Raleigh NWS offices. Both of them try, but the reality is that they typically build their 'base' forecast based on where they are HQed, and then go out from there..

I should clarify that I lived in Danville for a bit during my teen years. Yours truly was dissapointed more than once when focusing on the VA mets for potential storm impacts. They surely meant well. But in the end, I found that taking what was predicted in Winston-Salem was a pretty accurate forecast for what would happen in Danville. (and that meant focusing on the Triad Mets instead of VA)

Edit: I just realized you're in Dry Fork instead of Danville. But seeing how that is S of Chatham, I don't think it's too much of a difference between the N outskirts of Danville Proper. :)

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And from RAH:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 AM Thursday... The focus of the long term again remains on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Latest suite of model guidance is indicating generally less snowfall amounts across the NW Piedmont, with slightly greater ice accretion. Any slight changes in the thermal profiles though can drastically change precipitation amounts and types. Synoptic setup: During the day Saturday an omega block will initially be setup across Idaho/ Montana with an upper level trough axis centered just east of Maine. Over Kansas and Missouri a shortwave trough will be lodged between the two. By late Saturday night into early Sunday morning some of the energy from the trough axis will head east while some energy remains over the Midwest. Another shortwave over California will then be pulled underneath the ridge transitioning the Omega block to a Rex block. At the surface polar surface high pressure will be located over Ontario. A surface low pressure will also be heading east across Mississippi/ Alabama. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning still shows the most impressive upper level support as surface low pressure will strengthen near the North Carolina/ South Carolina coast, with the RAH CWA located between the subtropical and polar jet streams. The split jet puts RAH in a LFQ (subtropical jet) and RRQ (polar jet). During the day Sunday multiple rounds of PVA will wash across the region as energy from the Midwest continues to eject east. Monday into Tuesday morning the remaining upper level energy will push east offshore as the block breaks down. Precip chances: Much of the day Saturday looks to be dry as 0.20" PWATs will take some time to modify. GFS forecast soundings show low level dry air (in the 700 mb to 975 mb layer) remaining through most of the day with widespread mid and upper level clouds. Saturday night into Sunday morning, or 03z Sunday into 18z Sunday, still appears to be the time period with the greatest chance of precipitation and QPF amounts. Strong DCVA and split jet dynamics (as mentioned above) will provide impressive upper level lift. Current FGEN fields also support the best QPF totals across central North Carolina (near U.S. 1). Sunday afternoon, mid and upper level dry air will pour into the region helping to support lessening PoPs. Low level saturation will remain though Monday and with the trough axis still west of the area have kept PoPs in. Precipitation type: Latest suite of model runs have advertised slightly warmer thermal profiles (and therefore thicknesses) which would support more freezing rain (and less snow) than previous runs. The best chance for wintry precipitation will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Taking a look at forecast soundings and max temperatures aloft, the chance for any pure snow precipitation appears transient for most of the CWA. The NAM would support some IP mixing in (at least) for most of the time across the entire CWA. The only exception would be across the far northern zones and the NW Piedmont. The ECMWF and GFS are very similar to one another with snow possible mainly along and north and west of Interstate 85. The transition looks to be quick though with only about a ~6 hr window between 00z Sunday and 06z Sunday with all snow supported. After 06z Sunday soundings profiles across the northwest change over to IP and eventually FZRA. South and east of Interstate 85 the chance of seeing pure snow falls off pretty quickly with the primary threat being FZRA. Temperatures for FZRA will be marginal, but with dewpoints Saturday afternoon in the 20s, wet bulbing should help bring lows down Sunday morning to below freezing (mainly north and west of U.S. 1). Sunday afternoon saturation in the DGZ will be lost helping to transition precipitation lighter with more of a drizzle and freezing drizzle supported. Amounts: Snowfall amounts have been decreased slightly with an inch or two possible in the Triad with amounts quickly falling off near the Triangle. Ice amounts have been raised slightly, with totals up to around a tenth of an inch possible (again mainly near Interstate 85). Tuesday into Wednesday the trough axis will be southeast of the region with weak high pressure overhead. High temperatures will slowly recover into the 50s by Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement here with shortwave energy heading east towards the Ohio Valley Wednesday. As of current the area looks dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

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