FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 CMC looks to hold it's ground for a major ice storm for up state to Charlotte to Raleigh. It anything it's a little colder at the surface than the past run. **first time it's trended back colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: CMC looks to hold it's ground for a major ice storm for up state to Charlotte to Raleigh. It anything it's a little colder at the surface than the past run. **first time it's trended back colder The High placement looks good and solid.... it's a colder run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Maybe Grit can chime in on how the CMC is doing with verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The High placement looks good and solid.... it's a colder run for sure. This thing has screamed ice storm from the get-go for places outside of the mtns.....see no changes thus far in the modeling to dispute that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: That is surface temp correct? I'm surprised I'm below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Correct me if I'm wrong, but I want to say the CMC is sometimes a little cold at the surface in the mid/long-range, so it could be overdoing the ice threat. Or at least that's what I remember from years ago. It might've changed. Of course, other modeling can tend to run too warm in CAD situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Maybe Grit can chime in on how the CMC is doing with verification scores? I'm thinking go with a blend. CMC may be a little cold and some other modeling may be a little warm. One thing that seems off to me is how some of the modeling wants to warm the surface as the precip is rolling thru on NE winds and damming. Regarding the storm wave, we haven't seen a trend over the last few cycles of it amp-ing up more and climbing north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That is surface temp correct? I'm surprised I'm below freezing Your below freezing because it’s early morning!youll be in the 50s by the time precip arrives! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 has definitely trended more icier and colder at 12z compared to its earlier runs. ICON would be a big ice storm in NC, Just like the Canadian if you look t surface temps,DP ,Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: FV3 has definitely trended more icier and colder at 12z compared to its earlier runs. ICON would be a big ice storm in NC, Just like the Canadian if you look t surface temps,DP ,Precip. Trended way colder... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: FV3 has definitely trended more icier and colder at 12z compared to its earlier runs. ICON would be a big ice storm in NC, Just like the Canadian if you look t surface temps,DP ,Precip. Not surprised. This is a pretty cold air mass we are dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 UkMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: CMC looks to hold it's ground for a major ice storm for up state to Charlotte to Raleigh. It anything it's a little colder at the surface than the past run. **first time it's trended back colder Looks like the CMC stands alone with this extreme. I would not discount it just yet. I have seen the CMC handle CAD well in North Carolina. It will be interesting to see the NAM on the later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Thor said: UkMet Pretty impressive... that's a good snow but the UK probably includes sleet to right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: FV3 ^^ That's all ice or their snow depth algorithm is all messed up. Look at the total accumulated snow from either Kuchera or non-Kuchera models for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 How does 12z Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: How does 12z Euro look? https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/snow-depth-in/20190115-1200z.html That’s with the little extra for Monday too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: How does 12z Euro look? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Is this thing possibly picking up on the stronger high and maybe getting colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Is this thing possibly picking up on the stronger high and maybe getting colder than modeled. We still have a little more time to see the models trend colder. One or two steps south and it changes the game for everybody (some with more snow, other with ice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelani Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 hours ago, magpiemaniac said: I don’t know. I guess it depends what you mean by good, but the Triad and NW Piedmont outside the mountains tend to reel in at least two to three decent snow events each season. I suppose opinions vary on what constitutes a decent snow event, but it's funny how that works. I'm 20 miles down the road from Boone, and the Triad usually outperforms us every year. In my experience we get one good (>4") event every 2-4 years, yet most years go by without so much as a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 27 minutes ago, kelani said: I suppose opinions vary on what constitutes a decent snow event, but it's funny how that works. I'm 20 miles down the road from Boone, and the Triad usually outperforms us every year. In my experience we get one good (>4") event every 2-4 years, yet most years go by without so much as a dusting. That probably has to do with A) missing all NW flow events and dealing with downsloping in shadow of mtns & B> being to far west at times to get fringed by the coastals . Like the crusher it literally stopped at the Guilford/Forsyth county line. All coastals are different but that's just one example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 No joke, they brined the roads today in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z NAM is slightly colder at the surface. Now gets freezing rain right up to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVA_SN Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nasty ice storm for far nw nc and southern va on the 18z nam. Widespread .5 - .75" ice totals. I hope some of that will be sleet to cut back on those numbers if what the nam is showing comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, wake4est said: No joke, they brined the roads today in Raleigh. true story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, SVA_SN said: Nasty ice storm for far nw nc and southern va on the 18z nam. Widespread .5 - .75" ice totals. I hope some of that will be sleet to cut back on those numbers if what the nam is showing comes to fruition. Would like to see a snow like your member page shows. When was that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, SVA_SN said: Nasty ice storm for far nw nc and southern va on the 18z nam. Widespread .5 - .75" ice totals. I hope some of that will be sleet to cut back on those numbers if what the nam is showing comes to fruition. Actually looks like SW VA actually escapes the worst icing as ground zero this run looks to be western 1/3 of N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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