ajr Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The GFS, which has been historically awful the past seven days, is changing peoples minds? Are y’all drunk? I understand pessimism but this is a bit much. Not me. The 12z euro move and supporting ensembles moved more away (relative to mby) from the previous 0z solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, ajr said: 18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah Off Savannah is not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 High keeps retreating, driving the warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Amazing folks still let the YoYo model play them like it does. After all these years. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thor said: High keeps retreating, driving the warm up. Dont focus on the letter H. Look at the 1st semicircle thats closed off. It expands contracts,that letter moves around,but the center point is almost in same location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Dont focus on the letter H. Look at the 1st semicircle thats closed off. It expands contracts,that letter moves around,but the center point is almost in same location. Just an opinion but since the pattern change has not taken place yet and it’s been warm from the SSW I wonder if models are still having issues trying to figure out the cold is coming? Of course we know from past experience models have problems even without the SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 hours ago, Queencitywx said: I did okay in December. I think @Isopycnic has historically done okay in our general location too. We definitely do better than raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: We definitely do better than raleigh area. Living in Durham, working in RTP and having coworkers from as far as Holly Springs made the last snow pretty awkward. Especially with the extra snow on Monday. (Coworkers who got rain don’t want to see pics of your eight inches of fluff in the back yard.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Throwing my lure out there... Ready to reel!Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said: Throwing my lure out there... Ready to reel! Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk You can fish in the puddles of rain, if you live in GSP area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 So if the storm ends up more north as depicted on the GFS and even the euro(from today's run), I think the question is; do we develop more CAD and consequently more southward expansion of ice. It will be interesting to see the next model runs...Tomorrow we'll start getting into the NAM range. Historically it has done well with CAD setups, but I'm not sure if it's dependable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 How does the 18z EPS look? Does anyone on here have access to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So if the storm ends up more north as depicted on the GFS and even the euro(from today's run), I think the question is; do we develop more CAD and consequently more southward expansion of ice. It will be interesting to see the next model runs...Tomorrow we'll start getting into the NAM range. Historically it has done well with CAD setups, but I'm not sure if it's dependable right now. Good points.... and the answer is we don't know how reliable the NAM will be. I am more apt to trust the Euro in this case. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, FallsLake said: So if the storm ends up more north as depicted on the GFS and even the euro(from today's run), I think the question is; do we develop more CAD and consequently more southward expansion of ice. It will be interesting to see the next model runs...Tomorrow we'll start getting into the NAM range. Historically it has done well with CAD setups, but I'm not sure if it's dependable right now. I was looking forward to a few inches and excepting some mix keeping a lid on it at that. Then getting ready for more opportunities coming up as soon as this exit stage right. But today Im getting an uneasy vibe an warry of a potential significant freezing rain event. .5-.75+ frezing rain is on the table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the 18z EPS look? Does anyone on here have access to it? In mtn thread it went way up for Asheville. Need to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: I was looking forward to a few inches and excepting some mix keeping a lid on it at that. Then getting ready for more opportunities coming up as soon as this exit stage right. But today Im getting an uneasy vibe an warry of a potential significant freezing rain event. .5-.75+ frezing rain os on the table now. Yeah, a lot of us are in that same boat. Let's get this storm to trend just a little colder so we have sleet and not the ice storm we are looking at now. GFS has my location below freezing for the entire event despite the north trends of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: In mtn thread it went way up for Asheville. Need to check That was the 12z. I don't see anything about the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the 18z EPS look? Does anyone on here have access to it? 18z EPS - was just looking at it. The wave was a little stronger, but more positive tilt. End result is the mid level temps were a little warmer, but the sfc temps held east of the mtns. Sfc low reflection more north in TN (inverted trough) and warmer temps there. Precip amounts thru midday Monday was slightly less for our subforum (likely due to more positive tilt of the wave). Saturday evening the EPS has GSP to CLT to RDU to east of Richmond locked in near freezing at the sfc on the last 2 runs...colder to the northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Thing is you know surface temps are gonna trend colder as we get closer. Globals never catch the cad, forecast it correctly. I doubt very seriously triad and alot of areas ever get to 32 during precip. Should be getting a peek by this time tommorow with nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Thing is you know surface temps are gonna trend colder as we get closer. Globals never catch the cad, forecast it correctly. I doubt very seriously triad and alot of areas ever get to 32 during precip. Should be getting a peek by this time tommorow with nam. The tricky thing is that the globals may not be quite cold enough at the sfc, but if the storm trends a little north as is typical, it ends up being a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, griteater said: The tricky thing is that the globals may not be quite cold enough at the sfc, but if the storm trends a little north as is typical, it ends up being a wash. Yep, we don't have the crazy confluence like in December, and this thing keeps getting amped and it's still 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 NWS RAH mentioned confluence to the north as being something that would aid this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I know it's the 84 hr NAM, but it looks to be very far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: NWS RAH mentioned confluence to the north as being something that would aid this system. The confluence and sfc high has held fine thus far...but the wave has become a bit more organized and consolidated, and a little more stout, bringing a little more warmth with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The confluence and sfc high has held fine thus far...but the wave has become a bit more organized and consolidated, and a little more stout, bringing a little more warmth with it according to GFS, right? Euro/eps still more strung out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: according to GFS, right? Euro/eps still more strung out? No Euro/EPS is getting more organized with the wave overall and the new NAM is amped up with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Oh.. So today's model runs were definitely not good for central NC. On to tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Nam at end of run has dps in teens across GA/SC state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 ICON is a rather large ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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