mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 24 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z euro for 3am on the 13th: Yay! More rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 48 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: The -Wow posting index for this storm is way in the negative territory. Not looking like it's going to be good for the piedmont. lol. I've been reading periodically. On vacation in a min cabin right now. I think we'll get something of significance... Still waiting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wow said: I've been reading periodically. On vacation in a min cabin right now. I think we'll get something of significance... Still waiting Looking forward to your posts on this storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Wow said: I've been reading periodically. On vacation in a min cabin right now. I think we'll get something of significance... Still waiting Nice, enjoy. Then when you're done you can skate down the mountain this weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GSP seemed downright bored in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: GSP seemed downright bored in their AFD. RAH is delaying the Long Term discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 RAH If the low levels can be moistened up, onset of precipitation could begin as snow, especially across the NW Piedmont with rain or snow possible in the Triangle region. Rain is expected across the south. Temps mid 30s to mid 40s NW to SE. On Sunday cyclogenesis will continue along the Carolina Coast with the wedge front still in place across the Piedmont. With the original surface low weakening and heading to the west of the wedge and new coastal low development, the pattern is looking more in line with a Miller B and forecast soundings are consistent with that as a lot of mixed precipitation is present with wider corridors of P- Types as opposed to a real tight gradient across the climatologically favored NW Piedmont. Forecast soundings also hint at losing saturation in the dendritic growth zone and 850 mb temps warm up to almost three degrees above zero, further complicating the P-Type scenario. Expect a mixed bag of precipitation but for now keeping the forecast to rain or snow across the climatologically favored areas with rain to the south and east. Mid to upper 30s across the NW with mid 40s in the southeast. It should be noted that it is entirely too early to speculate on any kind of snow totals given the long range time frame, lack of sampling, and P-Type details to still be ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z NAM continues to show colder dew points compared to the GFS. At hour 84 has teens over most of SC; whereas the GFS has mostly 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Euro has a classic sleet/zr sounding for Raleigh . A deep layer of sub freezing temps from sfc to about 900mb. Will be hard to scour this wedge out and wouldn't be surprised to see this wedge continue to trend stronger in the Carolinas. Courtesy of Accuweather... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 That’s cool Hky - is that Euro sounding on a higher end AccuWx package or the regular subscription? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, griteater said: That’s cool Hky - is that Euro sounding on a higher end AccuWx package or the regular subscription? Reg. You can find it at the bottom. The regular subscription is only 20 bucks/month. Worth it over the winter (Dec-Mar). The more I look at this one at 500mb, the more it looks like an old school CAD scenario. Pretty classic 50/50 low setting up. Of course, this is all contingent on the models not being too far off. Confidence will increase once we get into thur/fri. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looking pretty impossible (at this point) for Wake County to see a lot of snow. Mixed precip is definitely looking more likely. Surface temps look really warm and plus a big warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 My take from the 12z runs is that the models now have a general concensus with the wave handling and have gone a bit away from the weak sheared-out solution. Question is, how does that concensus trend going forward? I think this has a better chance now of climbing a little north than it does south as we approach go time 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 22 minutes ago, griteater said: My take from the 12z runs is that the models now have a general concensus with the wave handling and have gone a bit away from the weak sheared-out solution. Question is, how does that concensus trend going forward? I think this has a better chance now of climbing a little north than it does south as we approach go time Maybe our best hope for wintery precip is a miller B with a strong CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, griteater said: My take from the 12z runs is that the models now have a general concensus with the wave handling and have gone a bit away from the weak sheared-out solution. Question is, how does that concensus trend going forward? I think this has a better chance now of climbing a little north than it does south as we approach go time Don't you put that voodoo on us, grit! Hopefully not too far north with the 50/50 and a 1040+ (?) HP dropping in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z GFS looks like a western foothills to NW Piedmont ice storm. Good snows from extreme NW NC up into VA to the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z GFS looks like a western foothills to NW Piedmont ice storm. Good snows from extreme NW NC up into VA to the MA. Did it Miller A or B? If B, where was transfer, primary track before transfer if occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GFS not helping us. Losing what we had of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Rather have 55 degree torch rainstorm than sleet/ice. -Captain Obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Did it Miller A or B? If B, where was transfer, primary track before transfer if occured. Miller B junk. Goes into central Alabama at 108 and jumps to the NC coast, like right on the beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 So the 18z GFS and FV3 both are just to far north... mainly ice or rain... need it to come back south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I'll stick with the EURO/EPS/UK right now.... why? Because they give me more snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: So the 18z GFS and FV3 both are just to far north... mainly ice or rain... need it to come back south... Problem is the 12z euro headed their way more which was not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So the 18z GFS and FV3 both are just to far north... mainly ice or rain... need it to come back south... Where have you gotten the 18z (or even the 12z) FV3? TT and PW are both stuck at 6z for the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Where have you gotten the 18z (or even the 12z) FV3? TT and PW are both stuck at 6z for the FV3. Someone had it and talked about it on the Mid Atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Where have you gotten the 18z (or even the 12z) FV3? TT and PW are both stuck at 6z for the FV3. https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not looking great for Raleigh at the moment. Maybe a little mix before a changeover to rain. I think everyone in Piedmont turns over to rain and most of the accumulation (if any) melts by mid-day. Same thing with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like I might get punched down to .500... Starting to lose the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The GFS, which has been historically awful the past seven days, is changing peoples minds? Are y’all drunk? I understand pessimism but this is a bit much. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I wouldn't get to caught up on the OP GFS just yet... the 18z GEFS is noticeably more south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now