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January 12th-13th event


Orangeburgwx
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12z UKMet has the parent low way up in N MS, but the endpoint is still a low moving off the NC coast (with damming in between).  GFS/CMC/UKMet from 12z are fairly similar.  The damming high yields a fairly high chance for an impactful, mixed precip winter storm over the favored CAD areas IMO.  I would be surprised if this moves to a more snowy solution over the coming days, and a way north, low impact event with mostly rain seems unlikely as well

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm.

12z NAM dew points:

 

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Just remembering the past few storms but does the Nam tend to overdo the cold at it's outer range? Always seems to show a great solution initially and trend warmer closer to the event. Probably depends on the system. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z UKMet has the parent low way up in N MS, but the endpoint is still a low moving off the NC coast (with damming in between).  GFS/CMC/UKMet from 12z are fairly similar.  The damming high yields a fairly high chance for an impactful, mixed precip winter storm over the favored CAD areas IMO.  I would be surprised if this moves to a more snowy solution over the coming days, and a way north, low impact event with mostly rain seems unlikely as well

UK seem to show Snow to ICE for southern VA?

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1 minute ago, Thor said:

Just remembering the past few storms but does the Nam tend to overdo the cold at it's outer range? Always seems to show a great solution initially and trend warmer closer to the event. Probably depends on the system. 

The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS.  

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Just now, FallsLake said:

The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS.  

When is the expected onset of precip in our area?  Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well.

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

When is the expected onset of precip in our area?  Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well.

Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday:

Saturday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal.  
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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday:

Saturday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal.  

Try clicking a few miles south and you'll see the rain enter the forecast for southern Wake.  The point-and-click is already showing the traditional rain/snow line through Wake.

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