snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z Euro didn't weaken the snow as fast as it moved east leading to slightly higher totals for IN/OH. 4-8" for S IL/MO, 3-4" east to Indy and 1-2" east through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks about 50/50 for north central Indiana (Kokomo) with this storm Eight are misses and two show very little with the sharp cutoff on the northern edge. The win is #19 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Tuesday 12z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Tuesday 12z euro Overall increase from 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z NAM came in way hot/amplified with the southern plains wave compared to other guidance valid at 6z Saturday. 850mb low stronger/further north as well and a stronger LLJ is able to throw that moisture/precip much further north. Probably a mirage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z NAM came in way hot/amplified with the southern plains wave compared to other guidance valid at 6z Saturday. 850mb low stronger/further north as well and a stronger LLJ is able to throw that moisture/precip much further north. Probably a mirage. Lost count how many times in the past that was said only for the NAM to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Lost count how many times in the past that was said only for the NAM to verify. Or sometimes it will have the right idea with being more amped but just overdo it a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I fully expect to get nam'd at some point in the next 3 days of runs. You know we're going to get one of those crazy runs with 15" of snow. Nice move on the euro today wrt precip. It's not really that much of a better set up than previous runs, it just manages to put down more precip. Might have to do with duration more than anything. It has light snow falling for like 24-30 hours. I think 2-4 with our first WWA of the season for snow is a pretty decent bet right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18zgfs is a minor improvement. Inverted trough is more pronounced. If that trend continues it's a nice way to up totals without having to fear the wtod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Angrysummons said: This can't cut buckeye. Its getting squished by the wavelengths. Lack of moisture transport because the low is pretty far south is the bigger problem. that's what I said .... no danger of WTOD. Improvements in snowfall would be a result of a stronger inverted trough and slower speed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Angrysummons said: gotcha. I figure the nam is just being itself at 84 hours. no doubt....the nam will probably show a 988 driving to Cleveland by tomorrow 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Sorry. What's WTOD? warm tongue of death And Angry and myself hopefully didn't jinx it by claiming it couldn't happen....anything can happen. I should know better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 So saw this 18z FV3 QPF map posted. It seems to be in the NAM camp with a large 1.00" QPF area meaning likely a large 10"+ snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: So saw this 18z FV3 QPF map posted. It seems to be in the NAM camp with a large 1.00" QPF area meaning likely a large 10"+ snow area. Now we need that blue spot to hike a few hundred north so it sits over Chicagoland Just kidding. We already had our fun. It's time for others to get their turn too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I'm still waiting to get inside 72. Except for the big dog in the SE this year model accuracy has sucked outside 3 days, even 2. Climo wise us folks in the central parts of IL/IN/OH are just now entering our statistical "winter" when it comes to snow so if this pans out I'll take it as a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I'm still waiting to get inside 72. Except for the big dog in the SE this year model accuracy has sucked outside 3 days, even 2. Climo wise us folks in the central parts of IL/IN/OH are just now entering our statistical "winter" when it comes to snow so if this pans out I'll take it as a good sign This! Currently have flurries in my grid. Sigh at 2 storms just north and now a potential sliding just south. Nino's are the worst! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 26 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I'm still waiting to get inside 72. Except for the big dog in the SE this year model accuracy has sucked outside 3 days, even 2. Climo wise us folks in the central parts of IL/IN/OH are just now entering our statistical "winter" when it comes to snow so if this pans out I'll take it as a good sign I'm just glad there's something to look forward to. The pattern change is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 0z NAM continues to look amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 NAM doubled down....is very hot/amped. Slow moving, strengthening upper low leads to a hell of an event this run over a large area too. Very impressive run to say the least. Ratios should be fairly decent as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Hour 84 and snowfall to that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Man 0z nam is really something. Is it on crack or into something? It isn't in it's good range so not sure I believe it's very amped/moisture laden solution. But man this would be awesome. Large area of warning criteria snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man 0z nam is really something. Is it on crack or into something? It isn't in it's good range so not sure I believe it's very amped/moisture laden solution. But man this would be awesome. Large area of warning criteria snow Crack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man 0z nam is really something. Is it on crack or into something? It isn't in it's good range so not sure I believe it's very amped/moisture laden solution. But man this would be awesome. Large area of warning criteria snow NAM back at the beginning of the snowy November was taking all the other models to wood shed. Then it lost it's rhythm. Be nice if "it's back" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Ahhh, love me some amped up NAM runs. It's like sort of a tradition or something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Hour 84 and snowfall to that point. We say a prayer for STL & CMH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Atleast with this system we won’t have to worry about rain like we have for the very few wintry storms we’ve had, unless you’re further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Atleast with this system we won’t have to worry about rain like we have for the very few wintry storms we’ve had, unless you’re further south Ha true. We actually get to consider ratios this time, which is like the first time in a month and a half lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Ahhh, love me some amped up NAM runs. It's like sort of a tradition or something. Last year there was a really good one for us here in CMH. It blew up an otherwise benign light event into over a foot. It was an 00z run, probably about 60 hours out. Took about 2 runs later before it came down and crashed to reality. Being nam'd is like having the hottest girl at the party give you a surprise kiss and walk away. You know it ain't gonna lead to anything but it still makes your night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yea I'm not getting my hopes up at all. But maybe nam is sniffing out an earlier phase? one can dream right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Normally I wouldn't even put any stock in the NAM, but the other models did shift slightly stronger/slower/further north today as well. It is something to monitor for those of us toward the north for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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